{"id":14842,"date":"2024-12-05T09:26:27","date_gmt":"2024-12-05T01:26:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aisharenet.com\/?p=14842"},"modified":"2024-12-05T09:26:27","modified_gmt":"2024-12-05T01:26:27","slug":"naturezhongbang8fena","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/ja\/naturezhongbang8fena\/","title":{"rendered":"Nature\u91cd\u78c5\uff1a8\u5206\u949f\u9884\u6d4b15\u5929\u5168\u7403\u5929\u6c14\uff0cDeepMind AI\u51fb\u8d25\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5148\u8fdb\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7cfb\u7edf"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/ac243b96bde132b.jpeg\" width=\"933\" height=\"526\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u6765\u81ea\u4e16\u754c\u6c14\u8c61\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08WMO\uff09\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c<strong>\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb 50 \u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4e00\u573a\u4e0e\u5929\u6c14\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u6216\u6c34\u60a3\u6709\u5173\u7684\u707e\u5bb3\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u9020\u6210 115 \u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u30012.02 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\u3002<\/strong><br \/>\n\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c<strong>\u6784\u5efa\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7cfb\u7edf<\/strong>\uff0c\u5c06\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u633d\u6551\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u547d\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\uff0c<strong>\u610f\u4e49\u91cd\u5927<\/strong>\u3002<br \/>\n\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u4f9d\u8d56\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7b97\u6cd5\uff08NWP\uff09\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u9ad8\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u6784\u5efa\u8017\u65f6\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u751f\u6210\u9884\u62a5\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\uff08MLWP\uff09\u5728\u6548\u7387\u548c\u5355\u6b21\u9884\u62a5\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u4e0a\u867d\u6709\u6240\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u91cf\u5316\u9884\u62a5\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u5904\u7406\u590d\u6742\u65f6\u7a7a\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u65b9\u9762\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u53ca NWP \u96c6\u6210\u9884\u62a5\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<br \/>\n\u5982\u4eca\uff0c<strong>\u7531 Google DeepMind \u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u6a21\u578b GenCast\uff0c\u5c06\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7684\u7cbe\u5ea6\u4e0e\u6548\u7387\u5e26\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5d2d\u65b0\u7684\u9636\u6bb5<\/strong>\u2014\u2014<br \/>\nGenCast \u80fd\u591f\u5728 8 \u5206\u949f\u5185\u751f\u6210\u4e00\u7ec4\u968f\u673a\u7684 15 \u5929\u5168\u7403\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u957f\u4e3a 12 \u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u8fbe 0.25\u00b0\uff0c\u8986\u76d6\u8d85\u8fc7 80 \u79cd\u5730\u8868\u548c\u5927\u6c14\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5728 97.2% \u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u6307\u6807\uff08\u5171\u8ba1 1320 \u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff09\u4e0a\u90fd\u4f18\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u5168\u7403\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u9884\u62a5\u2014\u2014\u6b27\u6d32\u4e2d\u671f\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08ECMWF\uff09\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u9884\u62a5\uff08ENS\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u548c\u8054\u5408\u9884\u62a5\u5206\u5e03\u3002<br \/>\n\u53e6\u5916\uff0cGenCast \u5728\u9884\u62a5\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\uff08\u5982\u9ad8\u6e29\u3001\u5f3a\u98ce\uff09\u3001\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u8def\u7ebf\u548c\u98ce\u80fd\u4ea7\u91cf\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u6548\u3002<br \/>\n\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u8bba\u6587\u4ee5\u201c<em>Probabilistic weather forecasting with \u00a0machine learning<\/em>\u201d\u4e3a\u9898\uff0c\u5df2\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u6743\u5a01\u79d1\u5b66\u671f\u520a <em>Nature<\/em> \u4e0a\u3002<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/dc82b7e1af14792.png\" \/><\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4><strong>GenCast\uff1a\u66f4\u5feb\u3001\u66f4\u51c6\u9884\u62a5\u672a\u6765\u5929\u6c14<\/strong><\/h4>\n<div style=\"width: 1090px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/f2dd14435db2822.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1080\" height=\"1181\" \/><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u56fe\uff5cGenCast \u751f\u6210\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7684\u793a\u610f\u56fe\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 1090px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/016eb0e181af993.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1080\" height=\"972\" \/><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u56fe\uff5cGenCast \u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u9884\u62a5\u5206\u5e03\u5a34\u719f\u4e14\u6821\u51c6\u826f\u597d\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 1090px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/45e10ec75ce72ac.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1080\" height=\"256\" \/><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u56fe\uff5cGenCast \u5728\u533a\u57df\u98ce\u529b\u548c\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u9762\u4f18\u4e8e ENS\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n<p><strong>GenCast \u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6761\u4ef6\u6269\u6563\u6a21\u578b\uff08conditional diffusion model\uff09\u751f\u6210\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u573a\u666f<\/strong>\u3002\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u80fd\u529b\u5728\u4e8e\u5efa\u6a21\u672a\u6765\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5373\u57fa\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u6001\u751f\u6210\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9884\u62a5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u5f0f\u5141\u8bb8 GenCast \u4ee5\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u7cbe\u5ea6\u63d0\u4f9b\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4 15 \u5929\u6982\u7387\u6027\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u3002<br \/>\n\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c<strong>GenCast \u7684\u67b6\u6784\u5305\u62ec\u7f16\u7801\u5668\u3001\u5904\u7406\u5668\u548c\u89e3\u7801\u5668\u4e09\u5927\u6a21\u5757<\/strong>\u3002\u7f16\u7801\u5668\u5c06\u521d\u59cb\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u6001\u6620\u5c04\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u8fc7 6 \u6b21\u7cbe\u7ec6\u5212\u5206\u7684\u7403\u5f62\u7f51\u683c\u4e0a\uff0c\u5904\u7406\u5668\u5219\u901a\u8fc7\u56fe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/pt\/transformer\/\">transformer<\/a> \u5728\u7f51\u683c\u8282\u70b9\u95f4\u6355\u6349\u590d\u6742\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u89e3\u7801\u5668\u5219\u5c06\u7ed3\u679c\u91cd\u65b0\u6620\u5c04\u56de\u5168\u7403\u7eac\u7ecf\u5ea6\u7f51\u683c\uff0c\u751f\u6210\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u5229\u7528 ERA5 \u518d\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u5bf9 GenCast \u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u5305\u542b 40 \u5e74\u95f4\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u5929\u6c14\u4f30\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6cdb\u5316\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u5bf9\u5386\u53f2\u5929\u6c14\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u7406\u89e3\u3002<br \/>\n\u4e3a\u8bc4\u4f30 GenCast \u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6027\u80fd\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u5bf9\u5176\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u57fa\u51c6\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u4e0e\u5f53\u524d\u6700\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u4e3a\u786e\u4fdd\u516c\u5e73\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u5747\u57fa\u4e8e ERA5 \u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u521d\u59cb\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u7edf\u4e00\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u81f3 0.25\u00b0\u3002<br \/>\n\u5728\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0cGenCast \u751f\u6210\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u6837\u672c\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u5b9e\u9645\u89c2\u5bdf\u503c\uff0c\u9884\u62a5\u5206\u5e03\u8986\u76d6\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u591a\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u4e3a\u7528\u6237\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5bf9\u6f5c\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cGenCast \u5728\u53f0\u98ce\u6d77\u8d1d\u601d\u767b\u9646\u65e5\u672c\u524d\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u9884\u62a5\u975e\u5e38\u6e05\u6670\uff0c\u5728 1-15 \u5929\u7684\u9884\u4f30\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u5176\u7403\u8c10\u529f\u7387\u8c31\u4e0e ERA5 \u5730\u9762\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002<br \/>\n\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c<strong>\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86 GenCast \u548c ENS \u5728\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u9884\u62a5\u6280\u80fd\u3001\u6821\u51c6\u548c\u6027\u80fd<\/strong>\uff0c\u5373\u8fb9\u9645\u9884\u62a5\u6027\u80fd\u3002\u8fb9\u9645\u9884\u62a5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u5730\u70b9\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u51b5\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u662f\u65e5\u5e38\u5929\u6c14\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002<br \/>\nGenCast \u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u9886\u57df\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u5176\u751f\u6210\u7684\u9884\u62a5\u5206\u5e03\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u6e29\u5ea6\u3001\u98ce\u901f\u548c\u6c14\u538b\u7b49\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u9884\u62a5\u4e0a\u4e0e\u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u9ad8\u5ea6\u543b\u5408\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u6539\u8fdb\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6821\u51c6\u6709\u6548\u91cf\u5316\u9884\u62a5\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<br \/>\n\u5177\u4f53\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c<strong>GenCast \u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u6c14\u8c61\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u62a5\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e ENS<\/strong>\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6db5\u76d6 1320 \u4e2a\u8bc4\u4f30\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e2d\uff0cGenCast \u5728 97.2% \u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53d6\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6280\u80fd\u5f97\u5206\uff08CRPS\uff09\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u9884\u62a5\uff081 \u81f3 5 \u5929\uff09\u4e2d\u6548\u679c\u663e\u8457\u3002<br \/>\n\u540c\u65f6\uff0c<strong>GenCast \u5728\u9884\u62a5\u9ad8\u6e29\u3001\u5f3a\u98ce\u7b49\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u65f6\u540c\u6837\u8868\u73b0\u5353\u8d8a<\/strong>\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u91c7\u7528 Brier \u6280\u80fd\u5f97\u5206\u548c\u76f8\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ef7\u503c\uff08REV\uff09\u66f2\u7ebf\u8861\u91cf\u6a21\u578b\u6027\u80fd\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u9884\u62a5\u9ad8\u6e29\uff0899.99% 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