{"id":26917,"date":"2025-02-25T14:03:50","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T06:03:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aisharenet.com\/?p=26917"},"modified":"2025-02-25T14:03:50","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T06:03:50","slug":"zhuanfangsatiyana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/en\/zhuanfangsatiyana\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e13\u8bbf\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4f18\u5148\u4e8eAGI\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6fAI\u84dd\u56fe\u4e0e\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u8dc3\u8fc1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u8fd1\u65e5\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f CEO \u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9 (Satya Nadella) \u63a5\u53d7\u4e86 Dwarkesh Patel \u7684\u64ad\u5ba2\u91c7\u8bbf\uff0c\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u5fae\u8f6f\u5728 \u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd (AI) \u548c\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u5bf9\u884c\u4e1a\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u72ec\u5230\u89c1\u89e3\u3002\u5728\u8bbf\u8c08\u4e2d\uff0c\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5206\u4eab\u4e86\u5fae\u8f6f\u5728\u62d3\u6251\u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279\u548c\u6e38\u620f\u4e16\u754c\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u66f4\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u63a8\u52a8\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f 10% \u7684\u76ee\u6807\u8fdc\u6bd4\u5b9e\u73b0 \u901a\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd (AGI) \u66f4\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-26918\" title=\"\u4e13\u8bbf\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4f18\u5148\u4e8eAGI\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6fAI\u84dd\u56fe\u4e0e\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u8dc3\u8fc1-1\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/7bfb65c4d835a00.png\" alt=\"\u4e13\u8bbf\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9\uff1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4f18\u5148\u4e8eAGI\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6fAI\u84dd\u56fe\u4e0e\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u8dc3\u8fc1-1\" width=\"1280\" height=\"713\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/7bfb65c4d835a00.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/7bfb65c4d835a00-768x428.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>\u65f6\u95f4\u6233<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>(0:00:00) &#8211; Intro<\/li>\n<li>(0:05:04) &#8211; AI \u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f\u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403<\/li>\n<li>(0:15:18) &#8211; \u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f 10%<\/li>\n<li>(0:21:39) &#8211; \u667a\u80fd\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u964d\u4f4e<\/li>\n<li>(0:30:19) &#8211; \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u7a81\u7834<\/li>\n<li>(0:42:51) &#8211; Muse \u5982\u4f55\u6539\u53d8\u6e38\u620f\u884c\u4e1a<\/li>\n<li>(0:49:51) &#8211; AI \u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u58c1\u5792<\/li>\n<li>(0:55:46) &#8211; \u6b63\u786e\u8ba4\u8bc6 AGI \u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6027<\/li>\n<li>(1:04:59) &#8211; \u5728\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684 34 \u5e74<\/li>\n<li>(1:10:46) &#8211; \u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9 \u76f8\u4fe1 AGI \u5417\uff1f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>\u8bbf\u8c08\u5b9e\u5f55<\/h2>\n<h3>0:00:00 &#8211; \u5f00\u573a\u4ecb\u7ecd<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u6765\u5230\u64ad\u5ba2\u8282\u76ee\u3002\u7a0d\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f1a\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u5fae\u8f6f\u6700\u8fd1\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u4e24\u9879\u91cd\u5927\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u5e76\u8868\u793a\u795d\u8d3a\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u5929\u767b\u4e0a\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\uff1aMajorana Zero \u82af\u7247\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u6446\u5728\u773c\u524d\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/?p=1122837&amp;preview=1&amp;_ppp=a1d85840fc\">\u4e16\u754c\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b<\/a>\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u5148\u7ee7\u7eed\u521a\u624d\u7684\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff1f\u60a8\u63d0\u5230\u5728 80 \u5e74\u4ee3\u548c 90 \u5e74\u4ee3\u770b\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u53c8\u91cd\u73b0\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u6211\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6700\u4ee4\u4eba\u5174\u594b\u7684\u662f\u2026\u2026 Dwarkesh\uff0c\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u8363\u5e78\u80fd\u53c2\u52a0\u4f60\u7684\u64ad\u5ba2\u8282\u76ee\u3002\u6211\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u5fe0\u5b9e\u542c\u4f17\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u559c\u6b22\u4f60\u7684\u8bbf\u8c08\u98ce\u683c\u548c\u4f60\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8bdd\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8ba9\u6211\u611f\u5230\u5174\u594b\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u773c\u524d\u7684\u666f\u8c61\u8ba9\u6211\u60f3\u8d77\u4e86\u6211\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6700\u521d\u51e0\u5e74\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f 90 \u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u4e1a\u754c\u5bf9\u4e8e RISC (\u7cbe\u7b80\u6307\u4ee4\u96c6\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a) \u8fd8\u662f CISC (\u590d\u6742\u6307\u4ee4\u96c6\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a) \u5b70\u4f18\u5b70\u52a3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u771f\u7684\u80fd\u7528 x86 \u67b6\u6784\u6784\u5efa\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u5417\uff1f\u201d\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u4e89\u8bba\u4e0d\u4f11\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u52a0\u5165\u5fae\u8f6f\u65f6\uff0c\u6b63\u503c Windows NT \u7684\u521d\u671f\u3002\u4ece\u6838\u5fc3 \u7845 \u5e73\u53f0\u5230\u64cd\u4f5c\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u5e94\u7528\u5c42\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u6280\u672f\u6808\u7684\u65b9\u65b9\u9762\u9762\u90fd\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u53d8\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u91cd\u5851\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\u548c\u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97\u65e0\u7591\u6539\u53d8\u4e86 \u5ba2\u6237\u7aef-\u670d\u52a1\u5668 \u6a21\u5f0f\uff0cWeb \u4e5f\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u53d8\u9769\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u6d6a\u6f6e\u611f\u89c9\u6bd4\u6211\u8fc7\u53bb\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u6b21\u90fd\u66f4\u5177\u6709 \u5168\u6808 \u5f0f\u7684\u98a0\u8986\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u60a8\u56de\u987e 80 \u5e74\u4ee3\u548c 90 \u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u51b3\u7b56\u6700\u7ec8\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u957f\u671f\u8d62\u5bb6\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u53c8\u88ab\u65f6\u4ee3\u6dd8\u6c70\uff1f\u7279\u522b\u662f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u60a8\u66fe\u5728 Sun Microsystems \u5de5\u4f5c\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86 90 \u5e74\u4ee3\u7684 \u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab \u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5e38\u8bf4\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5efa\u8bbe\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u4e5f\u6b63\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u90a3\u65f6\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5173\u4e8e\u54ea\u4e9b\u4e8b\u7269\u80fd\u591f\u7ecf\u53d7\u65f6\u95f4\u8003\u9a8c\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u662f\u5185\u5728\u7684\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u53c8\u53ea\u662f\u6619\u82b1\u4e00\u73b0\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u4ece\u4e2d\u5438\u53d6\u54ea\u4e9b\u6559\u8bad\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u56de\u987e\u6211\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u7684\u56db\u5927\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f \u5ba2\u6237\u7aef \u548c \u5ba2\u6237\u7aef-\u670d\u52a1\u5668 \u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5174\u8d77\u3002\u90a3\u662f \u56fe\u5f62\u7528\u6237\u754c\u9762 \u548c x86 \u67b6\u6784\u8bde\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u6784\u5efa\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u65f6\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8d8b\u52bf\u5df2\u7ecf\u975e\u5e38\u6e05\u6670\u3002\u6211\u8bb0\u5f97\u53c2\u52a0\u4e86 1991 \u5e74\u7684 PDC (\u4e13\u4e1a\u5f00\u53d1\u8005\u5927\u4f1a)\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u90a3\u65f6\u6211\u8fd8\u5728 Sun \u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u5728 1991 \u5e74\u7684 Moscone \u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u9996\u6b21\u516c\u5f00\u4e86 Win32 \u63a5\u53e3\uff0c\u6211\u5f53\u65f6\u5c31\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u4e5f\u5c06\u8d70\u5411 x86 \u67b6\u6784\u3002\u5f53\u89c4\u6a21\u4f18\u52bf\u5f00\u59cb\u7d2f\u79ef\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u62bc\u6ce8\u8fd9\u79cd\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u5ba2\u6237\u7aef \u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53d8\u9769\u4e5f\u5c06\u5728\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u7aef\u91cd\u6f14\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4f60\u5c31\u80fd\u771f\u6b63\u6784\u5efa \u5ba2\u6237\u7aef-\u670d\u52a1\u5668 \u5e94\u7528\u4e86\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e94\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u53d8\u5f97\u6e05\u6670\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u63a5\u7740\uff0cWeb \u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5e94\u5bf9\u5b83\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u521a\u52a0\u5165\u5fae\u8f6f\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0cNetscape \u6d4f\u89c8\u5668 \u6216 Mosaic \u6d4f\u89c8\u5668 \u5c31\u95ee\u4e16\u4e86\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f 93 \u5e74\u7684 11 \u6708\u6216 12 \u6708\uff0cAndreessen \u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u771f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u53d8\u9769\u3002\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u521a\u521a\u5f00\u59cb Client-Server \u6d6a\u6f6e\u65f6\uff0cWeb \u6d6a\u6f6e\u5c31\u6765\u4e86\u3002\u4f46\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u5c06\u8d62\u5f97 Client-Server \u7684\u80dc\u5229\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e Web \u6d6a\u6f6e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u505a\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u505a\u5f97\u76f8\u5f53\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6d4f\u89c8\u5668\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5168\u76d8\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u5b83\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5728 Word \u4e2d\u652f\u6301 HTML\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4eb2\u81ea\u6784\u5efa\u65b0\u7684\u6d4f\u89c8\u5668\u5e76\u53c2\u4e0e\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u5806\u6808\u4e0a\u6784\u5efa Web \u670d\u52a1\u5668\u5e76\u79ef\u6781\u62d3\u5c55\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86 Web \u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a Web \u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\uff0c\u8c01\u4f1a\u60f3\u5230 \u641c\u7d22 \u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u7ec4\u7ec7 Web \u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u6700\u5927\u8d62\u5bb6\u5462\uff1f\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u9884\u89c1\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u800c Google \u770b\u5230\u4e86\u5e76\u51fa\u8272\u5730\u6267\u884c\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6559\u8bad\uff1a\u4f60\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u628a\u63e1\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6280\u672f\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u5f04\u6e05\u695a\u4ef7\u503c\u5c06\u4f1a\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\u4ea7\u751f\u3002\u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u6280\u672f\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u66f4\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>0:05:04 &#8211; AI \u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f\u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\uff0cAI \u9886\u57df\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5c06\u4f1a\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\u4ea7\u751f\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u63d0\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u597d\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u6bd4\u8f83\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u9996\u5148\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\u7684 \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4e91\u670d\u52a1\u5546 (hyperscalers)\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6700\u6839\u672c\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u56de\u987e Sam (\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6307 Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO) \u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5bf9 AI \u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8bf4 \u667a\u80fd \u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8c01\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u8c01\u5c31\u662f\u5927\u8d62\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u89c2\u5bdf\u4efb\u4f55 AI \u5de5\u4f5c\u8d1f\u8f7d\u7684\u5e95\u5c42\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 ChatGPT\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u5174\u594b\u7684\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f GPU \u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u5f88\u68d2\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u751a\u81f3\u5c06\u6211\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u96c6\u7fa4\u89c6\u4e3a AI \u52a0\u901f\u5668\u3001\u5b58\u50a8\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e09\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u4ece\u89c4\u6a21\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u4e0d\u65ad\u6269\u5c55\u5b83\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u662f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cAI \u5de5\u4f5c\u8d1f\u8f7d\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u7b80\u76f4\u662f\u5929\u8d50\u4e4b\u798f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u5417\uff1f\u5b83\u4eec\u5bf9\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u66f4\u52a0\u65fa\u76db\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5728 \u63a8\u7406\u65f6\u95f4 (inference time) \u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5f53\u4f60\u60f3\u5230 AI \u4ee3\u7406 (AI agent) \u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0 AI \u4ee3\u7406 \u5c06\u4f1a\u5448\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u589e\u957f\u8ba1\u7b97\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u7684\u8c03\u7528\u4e0d\u518d\u53d7\u9650\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u7528\u6237\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u4eba\u7c7b\u7528\u6237\u8c03\u7528\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\u518d\u53bb\u8c03\u7528\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u4e3a\u8ba1\u7b97\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u521b\u9020\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u89c4\u6a21\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684 \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4e1a\u52a1\uff0cAzure \u4e1a\u52a1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4e91\u670d\u52a1\u5546\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u90fd\u5c06\u8fce\u6765\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u673a\u9047\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4e1a\u52a1\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u5c31\u53d8\u5f97\u6709\u4e9b\u6a21\u7cca\u4e86\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b58\u5728 \u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403 \u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u5e76\u4e0d\u8fd9\u4e48\u8ba4\u4e3a\u3002\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u5b66\u5230\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u6559\u8bad\uff1a\u975e\u5e38\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u54ea\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u662f \u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403 \u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u54ea\u4e9b\u4e0d\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u6211\u8bb0\u5f97\u65e9\u671f\u521a\u63a5\u89e6 Azure \u65f6\uff0c\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u7684\u9886\u5148\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u90fd\u5bf9\u6211\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6e38\u620f\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\uff0c\u4f60\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u4f1a \u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403 \u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u51ed\u501f\u4e0e Oracle \u548c IBM \u5728 \u5ba2\u6237\u7aef-\u670d\u52a1\u5668 \u9886\u57df\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u6211\u6df1\u77e5\u4e70\u5bb6\u7edd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bb9\u5fcd \u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403 \u7684\u5c40\u9762\u3002\u4ece\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4e91\u670d\u52a1\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f \u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403 \u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e70\u5bb6\u90fd\u5f88\u7cbe\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6d88\u8d39\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0 \u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403 \u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ea7\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e70\u5bb6\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u516c\u53f8\u3001\u4f01\u4e1a\u8fd8\u662f IT \u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u90fd\u5e0c\u671b\u6709\u591a\u4e2a\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u6210\u4e3a\u4f17\u591a\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u9886\u57df\u4e5f\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728 \u5f00\u6e90 \u548c \u79c1\u6709 \u4e24\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u5c31\u50cf Windows \u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6211\u4ece\u4e2d\u5b66\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u6559\u8bad\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a \u95ed\u6e90 \u64cd\u4f5c\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0e\u4e4b\u4e92\u8865\u7684 \u5f00\u6e90 \u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u683c\u5c40\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u5236\u8861\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b \u95ed\u6e90 \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u80af\u5b9a\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6709 \u5f00\u6e90 \u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u800c \u5f00\u6e90 \u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4f1a\u786e\u4fdd \u95ed\u6e90 \u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403 \u7684\u5c40\u9762\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u9886\u57df\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c AI \u771f\u7684\u50cf\u4eba\u4eec\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u90a3\u4e48\u5f3a\u5927\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8896\u624b\u65c1\u89c2\uff0c\u4efb\u7531\u79c1\u8425\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u2026\u2026 \u8086\u610f\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a AI \u4f1a\u662f \u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403 \u7684\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u518d\u5f80\u4e0a\u4e00\u5c42\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u60c5\u51b5\u8fd8\u662f\u548c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5728\u6d88\u8d39\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u7c7b\u522b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e9b \u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403 \u7684 \u7f51\u7edc\u6548\u5e94 \u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0cChatGPT \u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7ea7\u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u7684 \u9003\u9038\u901f\u5ea6 (escape velocity)\u3002\u6211\u5728 App Store \u4e0a\u770b\u5230\u5b83\u59cb\u7ec8\u4f4d\u5c45\u524d\u4e94\uff0c\u8fd9\u771f\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5229\u7528\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5e94\u7528\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u5728\u6d88\u8d39\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ea7\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u522b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8d62\u5bb6\u3002\u81f3\u5c11\u6211\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u5206\u6790\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u540e\u7eed\u95ee\u9898\u60f3\u95ee\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7a0d\u540e\u5fc5\u987b\u8ba8\u8bba\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u5173\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab \u5546\u54c1\u5316 \u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a\u6216\u8bb8\u6709\u4eba\u5728\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u4e5f\u5bf9 \u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97 \u63d0\u51fa\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e0d\u5c31\u662f \u82af\u7247 \u548c \u673a\u7bb1 \u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u4f60\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u8fd8\u662f\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u5728 \u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97 \u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u60ca\u4eba\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4f60\u4eec\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b0 \u89c4\u6a21\u7ecf\u6d4e \u5e76\u589e\u52a0\u5176\u4ed6\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u629b\u5f00\u672f\u8bed\u4e0d\u8c08\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u62e5\u6709 AGI\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5b83\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f60\u521b\u9020\u66f4\u597d\u7684 AI\u2014\u2014\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u7684\u662f \u5408\u6210\u6570\u636e \u548c \u5f3a\u5316\u5b66\u4e60 (RL)\uff1b\u4e5f\u8bb8\u672a\u6765\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0 \u81ea\u52a8\u5316 AI \u7814\u7a76\u5458 \u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u5de9\u56fa\u4f60\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u597d\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6211\u5f88\u597d\u5947\u60a8\u5bf9\u6b64\u6709\u4f55\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u5728 AI \u9886\u57df\u4fdd\u6301\u9886\u5148\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u89c4\u6a21\u5316 \u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u7269\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f \u5546\u54c1 \u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u4f60\u521a\u624d\u63d0\u5230\u7684 \u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u54e6\uff0c\u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97\u662f\u4e00\u79cd \u5546\u54c1 \u3002\u201d\u4f46\u5f53\u4f60\u89c4\u6a21\u5316\u4e4b\u540e\u2026\u2026 \u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8fd0\u8425 \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u4e91\u670d\u52a1\u5546 \u7684\u8bc0\u7a8d\u6240\u5728\u2026\u2026 \u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u96be\u7684\uff1f\u6211\u4e0d\u5c31\u662f\u628a\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u5806\u53e0\u8d77\u6765\u5417\uff1f\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6ca1\u9519\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728 \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u65e9\u671f\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u5f88\u591a \u6258\u7ba1\u670d\u52a1\u5546 \u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u90a3\u4e9b\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u597d\u751f\u610f\u3002\u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97\u4f1a\u6709\u524d\u666f\u5417\uff1f\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u5546\u4e1a\u4ef7\u503c\u5417\uff1f\u201d\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u4e00\u95e8\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u751f\u610f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u8574\u542b\u7740\u8fd0\u8425\u8bc0\u7a8d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 Azure\uff0c\u5b83\u8fd0\u8425\u7740\u904d\u5e03 60 \u591a\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u7ea7\u8ba1\u7b97\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3002\u8fd9\u5f88\u96be\u88ab\u590d\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u66f4\u60f3\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u683c\u5c40\u662f \u201c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d62\u5bb6\u201d \u8fd8\u662f \u201c\u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403\u201d\uff1f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u5f04\u6e05\u695a\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u6211\u559c\u6b22\u8fdb\u5165\u90a3\u4e9b \u5e02\u573a\u5bb9\u91cf\u5de8\u5927 (TAM) \u7684\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u5fc5\u627f\u62c5 \u8d62\u5bb6\u901a\u5403 \u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u6700\u597d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u8eab\u5904\u4e00\u4e2a\u80fd\u591f\u5bb9\u7eb3\u591a\u4e2a\u8d62\u5bb6\u7684\u5927\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u800c\u4f60\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u6240\u8bf4\u7684 \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u5c42\u3002\u5728 \u6a21\u578b \u5c42\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u7ec8\u9700\u8981\u5728\u67d0\u79cd \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u8ba1\u7b97\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u4e0a\u8fd0\u884c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u611f\u89c9\u8fd9\u79cd\u8054\u7cfb\u5c06\u6c38\u8fdc\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u672c\u8eab\uff1b\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b83\u9700\u8981\u5b58\u50a8\uff1b\u5b83\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u5e38\u89c4\u8ba1\u7b97\u6765\u8fd0\u884c\u8fd9\u4e9b \u4ee3\u7406 \u53ca\u5176 \u4ee3\u7406\u73af\u5883 \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u601d\u8003\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48 \u201c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u51ed\u501f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u5c31\u80fd\u5305\u63fd\u4e00\u5207\u201d \u7684\u5c40\u9762\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728 \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u4e91\u670d\u52a1\u5546 \u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u4e91\u670d\u52a1\u5546\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728 \u63a8\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u6269\u5c55 (inference time scaling) \u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u672a\u6765\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u548c GPU \u7684\u6210\u672c\u644a\u9500\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u7528\u4e8e\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u518d\u6b21\u7528\u4e8e\u63a8\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5f88\u597d\u5947\u60a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5fae\u8f6f\u548c Azure \u5c5e\u4e8e\u54ea\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684 \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u4e91\u670d\u52a1\u5546\uff1f\u662f \u9884\u8bad\u7ec3 \u65b9\u9762\uff1f\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u7c7b\u4f3c O3 (OpenAI o3) \u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u670d\u52a1\uff1f\u8fd8\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u6253\u7b97\u6258\u7ba1\u548c\u90e8\u7f72\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5bf9\u6b64\u6301 \u4e2d\u7acb \u6001\u5ea6\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6784\u5efa\u8ba1\u7b97\u96c6\u7fa4\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u987a\u5e94 \u6469\u5c14\u5b9a\u5f8b (Moore&#8217;s law) \u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4f1a\u50cf\u6211\u4eec\u8fc7\u53bb\u6240\u505a\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u4e00\u6837\uff1a\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u66f4\u65b0\u8ba1\u7b97\u96c6\u7fa4\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bbe\u5907\u7684\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u4ef7\u503c\u8fdb\u884c\u6298\u65e7\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u975e\u5e38\u64c5\u957f\u96c6\u7fa4\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u80fd\u591f\u4ee5\u9ad8\u5229\u7528\u7387\u8fd0\u884c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f5c\u4e1a\u3002\u6709\u65f6\uff0c\u5927\u578b\u8bad\u7ec3\u4f5c\u4e1a\u9700\u8981\u9ad8\u5ea6\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u5cf0\u503c \u6d6e\u70b9\u8fd0\u7b97\u80fd\u529b (flops)\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u9700\u8981\u534f\u540c\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u8fd9\u5f88\u597d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u62e5\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8db3\u8ff9\u6765\u6ee1\u8db3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5f52\u6839\u7ed3\u5e95\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c4\u6a21\u90fd\u53d8\u5f97\u5982\u6b64\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f \u9884\u8bad\u7ec3 \u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u9700\u8981\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48 \u9884\u8bad\u7ec3 \u89c4\u6a21\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\u4e5f\u5fc5\u987b\u8de8\u8d8a\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8fb9\u754c\u3002\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u90fd\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u4f60\u5f00\u59cb\u8de8\u8d8a \u9884\u8bad\u7ec3 \u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u7269\u8fd8\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u533a\u522b\u5462\uff1f\u6211\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97 \u4ecd\u5c06\u662f\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8981\u6784\u5efa\u4f60\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u96c6\u7fa4\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u80fd\u591f\u80dc\u4efb\u5927\u578b\u8bad\u7ec3\u4f5c\u4e1a\u3001\u63a8\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca RL (\u5f3a\u5316\u5b66\u4e60) \u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u66f4\u50cf\u662f\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3 \u6d6e\u70b9\u8fd0\u7b97\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u60f3\u4e3a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u521b\u5efa\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\u3001\u7cbe\u7b80\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u96c6\u7fa4\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca \u670d\u52a1\u9700\u6c42 \u3002\u5f52\u6839\u7ed3\u5e95\uff0c\u201c\u5149\u901f\u5c31\u662f\u5149\u901f\u201d\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u80fd\u6307\u671b\u5728\u5fb7\u514b\u8428\u65af\u5dde\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u8981\u4ece\u90a3\u91cc\u4e3a\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u63d0\u4f9b\u670d\u52a1\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5404\u5730\u90e8\u7f72\u63a8\u7406\u8ba1\u7b97\u96c6\u7fa4\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4e3a\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u63d0\u4f9b\u670d\u52a1\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u5bf9\u6784\u5efa\u771f\u6b63\u7684 \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u8ba1\u7b97\u96c6\u7fa4\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u54e6\uff0c\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u6211\u8fd8\u5e0c\u671b\u6211\u7684\u5b58\u50a8\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u4e5f\u9760\u8fd1\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f AI \u52a0\u901f\u5668 \u662f\u65e0\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u3002\u6211\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u5b58\u50a8\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u591f \u591a\u8def\u590d\u7528 \u591a\u4e2a\u8bad\u7ec3\u4f5c\u4e1a\uff0c\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u62e5\u6709\u5185\u5b58\uff0c\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u62e5\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b \u4ee3\u7406 \u53ef\u4ee5\u6267\u884c\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7684\u73af\u5883\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u5bf9 \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u8ba1\u7b97\u96c6\u7fa4\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>0:15:18 &#8211; \u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f 10%<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5fae\u8f6f\u6700\u8fd1\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u6765\u81ea AI \u7684\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u4e3a 130 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u6309\u7167\u76ee\u524d\u7684 \u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387 \u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u5927\u7ea6\u56db\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u5c06\u589e\u957f 10 \u500d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8d8b\u52bf\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0cAI \u6536\u5165\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230 1300 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u5982\u679c\u771f\u7684\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u60a8\u9884\u8ba1\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u5982\u6b64\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5de5\u4e1a\u7ea7\u7684\u5e94\u7528\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u662f\u901a\u8fc7 Office \u5b9e\u73b0\uff1f\u8fd8\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u90e8\u7f72\u7ed9\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6258\u7ba1\uff1f\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0 1300 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684 AI \u6536\u5165\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u62e5\u6709 AGI \u5417\uff1f\u90a3\u4f1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u666f\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Dwarkesh\uff0c\u4f60\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u975e\u5e38\u597d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8981\u62e5\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u5f0f\u589e\u957f\u3001\u5145\u88d5\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u751a\u81f3 \u5546\u54c1\u5316 \uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u8981\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u662f GDP \u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6211\u8c08\u8bba\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u6536\u5165\u524d\u666f\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u660e\u786e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5236\u7ea6\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5e38\u5e38\u5728 AGI \u7092\u4f5c\u4e2d\u8dd1\u5f97\u592a\u5feb\u3002\u8bf7\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f2%\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u6263\u9664\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c55\u671b 2025 \u5e74\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u770b\u5230\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6311\u6218\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u8981\u505a\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u8bf4\u8fd9\u582a\u6bd4 \u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d \u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0 \u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d \u5f0f\u7684\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u6211\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740 10% \u7684\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6 7% \u7684\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff0c\u6263\u9664\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u540e\u4ecd\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230 5% \u7684\u589e\u957f\u3002\u8fd9\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u3002\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ec5\u4ec5\u505c\u7559\u5728 \u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7 \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u90fd\u5728\u64b0\u5199\u76f8\u5173\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6211\u5bf9\u6b64\u611f\u5230\u6b23\u6170\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u8d62\u5bb6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u79cd \u5145\u88d5\u4f9b\u5e94 \u7684 \u5546\u54c1 \u3002\u7a81\u7136\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u52a0\u5feb\u4e86\u3002\u5f53\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u79d1\u6280\u884c\u4e1a\u4e5f\u4f1a\u53d7\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u8fd9\u624d\u662f\u5173\u952e\u65f6\u523b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u8be9\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86 AGI \u7684\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\uff0c\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u6beb\u65e0\u610f\u4e49\u7684 \u57fa\u51c6\u6d4b\u8bd5 \u3002\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u662f\uff1a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f 10%\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f 10%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c4\u6a21\u7ea6\u4e3a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/gdp-worldbank-constant-usd?tab=chart&amp;country=USA~CHN~IND~MEX~FRA~JPN~DEU~RUS~BRA~GBR~OWID_WRL\">100 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/a>\u00a0\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f 10%\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bcf\u5e74\u989d\u5916\u521b\u9020 10 \u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u771f\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u4e91\u670d\u52a1\u5546\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u7684 800 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6536\u5165\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8fd8\u662f\u592a\u5c11\u4e86\u3002\u96be\u9053\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u505a\u5230 8000 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4eec\u771f\u7684\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u771f\u6b63\u4ee5\u8fd9\u79cd\u901f\u5ea6\u63a8\u52a8\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5173\u952e\u7684\u74f6\u9888\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u53d8\u6210\uff1a\u4f60\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u62e5\u6709\u90e8\u7f72\u8fd9\u4e9b AI \u6765\u5b8c\u6210\u6240\u6709\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u8bf4\u5f97\u6ca1\u9519\u3002\u4f46\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u7ecf\u5178\u7684 \u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7 \u601d\u7ef4\u662f\uff1a\u201c\u563f\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u5148\u5efa\u597d\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u81ea\u7136\u4f1a\u6765\u3002\u201d\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8bba\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u627f\u62c5\u4e86\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u53bb\u5b9e\u8df5\u5b83\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u5fc5\u987b\u5339\u914d\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u540c\u65f6\u5173\u6ce8 \u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7 \u548c \u9700\u6c42\u4fa7 \u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8 \u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7 \uff0c\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u7406\u89e3\u5982\u4f55\u5c06 \u4f9b\u7ed9 \u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u8131\u79bb\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u5173\u6ce8 \u63a8\u7406\u6536\u5165 \u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u516c\u5f00 \u63a8\u7406\u6536\u5165 \u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u2026\u2026 \u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u5728\u8c08\u8bba\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4f60\u601d\u8003\u95ee\u9898\u7684 \u5236\u8861\u56e0\u7d20 \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u4e0d\u80fd\u6307\u671b\u4f9b\u9700\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u90fd\u5b8c\u5168\u5bf9\u79f0\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u6709 \u5b58\u5728\u8bc1\u660e \uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u4f60\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u6628\u5929\u7684\u6295\u5165 (\u8d44\u672c) \u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4f60\u624d\u80fd\u518d\u6b21\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u786e\u4fe1\u4f60\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u5931\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u60a8\u505a\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u51fa\u8272\u7684\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u5c31\u662f\u6562\u4e8e\u65e9\u671f\u4e0b\u6ce8\u3002\u4f60\u4eec\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.microsoft.com\/2019\/07\/22\/openai-forms-exclusive-computing-partnership-with-microsoft-to-build-new-azure-ai-supercomputing-technologies\/\">\u5728 2019 \u5e74\u6295\u8d44\u4e86 OpenAI<\/a>\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/de\/microsoft-copilo\/\">Copilot<\/a> \u548c\u4efb\u4f55\u5e94\u7528\u51fa\u73b0\u4e4b\u524d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56de\u987e \u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d \u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u94c1\u8def\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u5efa\u8bbe\u5e26\u6765\u4e86 6% \u5230 10% \u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u9879\u76ee\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u7684\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 \u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ece\u8f66\u7968\u9500\u552e\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u2026\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u65f6\u4e8f\u635f\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u94b1\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6ca1\u9519\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u771f\u7684\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u91cc\u8574\u85cf\u7740\u5c06\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u63d0\u5347 10 \u500d\u751a\u81f3 5 \u500d\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u8fc7\u4e8e\u5173\u6ce8 \u201cGPT-4 \u7684\u6536\u5165\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u4e9b\u77db\u76fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u771f\u7684\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e0b\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u5982\u6b64\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u96be\u9053\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 \u201c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u75af\u72c2\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u5efa\u8bbe\u4ef7\u503c\u6570\u5343\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\uff1f\u201d \u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u8574\u85cf\u7740\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u673a\u9047\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u70b9\uff0c\u5bf9\u5427\uff1f\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5bf9\u8ba1\u7b97\u96c6\u7fa4\u91c7\u53d6 \u5e73\u8861 \u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\u4e5f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5173\u952e\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6784\u5efa\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u6784\u5efa\u80fd\u591f\u771f\u6b63\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u578b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u578b\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4f60\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e24\u70b9\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4f60\u65e0\u6cd5\u771f\u6b63\u5229\u7528\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e \u7ade\u76f8\u6784\u5efa\u6a21\u578b \uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e \u7ade\u76f8\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u79cd \u5546\u54c1 \uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd \u5546\u54c1 \u80fd\u591f\u88ab\u4e16\u754c\u6240\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u63a8\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u2026\u2026 \u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u662f\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0 \u8fc7\u5ea6\u5efa\u8bbe \u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u4f60\u63d0\u5230\u7684 \u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u6ce1\u6cab \u65f6\u4ee3\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86\u4fe1\u53f7\uff1a\u563f\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u611f\u8c22\u4e0a\u5e1d\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u8702\u62e5\u800c\u81f3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u5728\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u80af\u5b9a\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u2026\u2026 \u6211\u5f88\u9ad8\u5174\u6210\u4e3a \u79df\u8d41\u65b9 \uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u6211\u81ea\u5efa\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4e5f\u79df\u8d41\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u3002\u6211\u5f88\u9ad8\u5174\u5728 2027 \u5e74\u30012028 \u5e74\u80fd\u591f\u79df\u8d41\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bbe\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u6211\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u592a\u68d2\u4e86\u3002\u201d \u6240\u6709\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u5efa\u8bbe\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u662f\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>0:21:39 &#8211; \u667a\u80fd\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u964d\u4f4e<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8bf4\u5230\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u60a8\u6700\u8fd1\u5728 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/de\/deepseek-chatshena\/\">DeepSeek<\/a> \u6a21\u578b\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/satyanadella\/status\/1883753899255046301?lang=en-GB\">\u53d1\u63a8\u6587<\/a>\u00a0\u8c08\u5230\u4e86 \u6770\u6587\u65af\u6096\u8bba (Jevons\u2019 Paradox)\u3002\u6211\u5f88\u597d\u5947\u60a8\u80fd\u5426\u8be6\u7ec6\u9610\u8ff0\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002\u6770\u6587\u65af\u6096\u8bba \u6307\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u67d0\u9879\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u5f39\u6027\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u603b\u6d88\u8d39\u91cf\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3002 \u667a\u80fd \u7684\u9700\u6c42\u662f\u5426\u4e5f\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u964d\u5982\u6b64\u654f\u611f\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u6211\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4ece\u6211\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u667a\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u975e\u5e38\u4fbf\u5b9c\u4e86\u3002\u6bcf\u767e\u4e07 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/de\/tokenization\/\">token<\/a> \u624d 2 \u7f8e\u5206\u3002\u6211\u771f\u7684\u9700\u8981\u5b83\u964d\u5230 0.02 \u7f8e\u5206\u5417\uff1f\u6211\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u74f6\u9888\u5728\u4e8e\u5b83\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u667a\u80fd\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5411\u6211\u6536\u53d6 100 \u500d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c 100 \u500d\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u4e50\u4e8e\u63a5\u53d7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u6216\u8bb8\u60a8\u5728\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ea7\u5e02\u573a\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u9762\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002 \u667a\u80fd \u7684\u5173\u952e\u7528\u4f8b\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u5b83\u771f\u7684\u9700\u8981\u964d\u5230\u6bcf\u767e\u4e07 token 0.002 \u7f8e\u5206\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f token \u7684 \u6548\u7528 \u3002\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u517c\u987e\uff1a\u4e00\u662f \u667a\u80fd \u9700\u8981\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3001\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u51fa\u73b0\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 DeepSeek \u6240\u505a\u7684\uff0c\u5f53 token \u6027\u80fd\u7684 \u6709\u6548\u524d\u6cbf (efficient frontier) \u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u66f2\u7ebf\u88ab\u5f2f\u66f2\uff0c\u524d\u6cbf\u79fb\u52a8\u65f6\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97 \u5c31\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u66fe\u7ecf\u8ba4\u4e3a \u201c\u5929\u54ea\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728 \u5ba2\u6237\u7aef-\u670d\u52a1\u5668 \u65f6\u4ee3\u5df2\u7ecf\u5356\u5149\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u7684\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u3002\u201d \u4f46\u4e00\u65e6\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u5c06\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u653e\u5165 \u4e91\u7aef \uff0c\u7a81\u7136\u4eba\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u6d88\u8d39\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u5730\u8d2d\u4e70\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b83\u662f\u5f39\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6309\u9700\u4ed8\u8d39\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8d2d\u4e70\u8bb8\u53ef\u8bc1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f7b\u5e95\u6269\u5c55\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8bb0\u5f97\u53bb\u5370\u5ea6\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u63a8\u9500 SQL Server\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5356\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u5417\uff1f\u4e91\u8ba1\u7b97 \u5728\u5370\u5ea6\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u8fdc\u8d85\u6211\u4eec\u5728 \u670d\u52a1\u5668 \u65f6\u4ee3\u6240\u80fd\u505a\u5230\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5728 AI \u9886\u57df\u4e5f\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8bd5\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u771f\u7684\u60f3\u5728 \u5357\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6 \u3001\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u6781\u4f4e\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u63d0\u4f9b\u771f\u6b63\u5ec9\u4ef7\u7684 \u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065 token\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u53d8\u9769\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u50cf\u6211\u8fd9\u6837\u8eab\u5904 \u65e7\u91d1\u5c71 \u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u542c\u5230\u4eba\u4eec\u8bf4 \u201c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6709\u70b9\u50bb\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u90e8\u7f72\u4e1c\u897f\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u5b50\u201d \u662f\u5f88\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e0e \u8d22\u5bcc 500 \u5f3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u5e76\u5e2e\u52a9\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3a\u6570\u4ebf\u751a\u81f3\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u4eba\u90e8\u7f72\u6280\u672f\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u60a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u80fd\u529b\u90e8\u7f72\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4f1a\u6709\u591a\u5feb\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u53ef\u7528\u7684 \u4ee3\u7406 \uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4f60\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u8fdc\u7a0b\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u6240\u6709\u7684\u5408\u89c4\u6027\u8981\u6c42\u548c\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u74f6\u9888\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u74f6\u9888\u5417\uff1f\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1a\u5f88\u5feb\u514b\u670d\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f \u53d8\u9769\u7ba1\u7406 \u6216 \u6d41\u7a0b\u53d8\u9769 \u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u7c7b\u6bd4\uff1a\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u50cf\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8de8\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u6ca1\u6709 PC\u3001\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6\u548c\u7535\u5b50\u8868\u683c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u3002\u4f20\u771f\u6ee1\u5929\u98de\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u6536\u5230\u4f20\u771f\u540e\uff0c\u518d\u5199\u4e00\u4efd\u5185\u90e8\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u56db\u5904\u4f20\u9605\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u4e0a\u586b\u5199\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u4efd\u9884\u6d4b\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u521a\u597d\u8d76\u4e0a\u4e0b\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540e\u6765\u6709\u4eba\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u563f\uff0c\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u7528 Excel \u8868\u683c\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6\u53d1\u9001\u51fa\u53bb\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u7f16\u8f91\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6211\u5c31\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u4efd\u9884\u6d4b\u62a5\u544a\u4e86\u3002\u201d \u6574\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u4e1a\u52a1\u6d41\u7a0b\u90fd\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a \u5de5\u4f5c\u5236\u54c1 \u548c \u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b \u90fd\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5c06 AI \u5f15\u5165 \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \u540e\u9700\u8981\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u601d\u8003\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b \u4ee3\u7406 \u65f6\uff0c\u6700\u6839\u672c\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684 \u5de5\u4f5c \u548c \u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u64ad\u5ba2\u505a\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u6211\u7684 Copilot\uff0c\u5bf9\u5b83\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u563f\uff0c\u6211\u8981\u548c Dwarkesh \u8ba8\u8bba\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u516c\u544a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u6e38\u620f\u751f\u6210\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u7ed9\u6211\u4e00\u4e2a\u6458\u8981\uff0c\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u6211\u5728\u53bb\u4e4b\u524d\u5e94\u8be5\u9605\u8bfb\u54ea\u4e9b\u6750\u6599\u3002\u201d \u5b83\u77e5\u9053\u4e24\u7bc7\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u53d6\u4e86\u76f8\u5173\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u6211\u751a\u81f3\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u563f\uff0c\u7528\u64ad\u5ba2\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u5448\u73b0\u7ed9\u6211\u3002\u201d \u5b83\u751a\u81f3\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u6a21\u62df\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u4e24\u4eba\u5bf9\u8bdd\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u65b0\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b\u2014\u2014\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e4b\u540e\u6211\u628a\u5b83\u5206\u4eab\u7ed9\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u56e2\u961f\u3002\u6211\u628a\u5b83\u590d\u5236\u5230 Pages (\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u6587\u6863\u7f16\u8f91\u8f6f\u4ef6) \u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6211\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5236\u54c1\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5206\u4eab\u51fa\u53bb\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u65b0\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b\u662f\uff0c\u501f\u52a9 AI \u8fdb\u884c\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u6211\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u534f\u540c\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u4ece\u4e8b \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6839\u672c\u6027\u7684 \u53d8\u9769\u7ba1\u7406 \u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5f04\u6e05\u695a \u201c\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u65b0\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b8c\u6210\u6211\u7684 \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \uff1f\u201d \u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u5b83\u5c06\u6e17\u900f\u5230\u9500\u552e\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7b49\u5404\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e \u4f20\u7edf\u4f01\u4e1a \u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u5236\u9020\u5546\u91c7\u7528 \u7cbe\u76ca\u751f\u4ea7 (Lean manufacturing) \u7684\u53d8\u9769\u3002\u6211\u559c\u6b22 \u7cbe\u76ca\u751f\u4ea7 \u7684\u7c7b\u6bd4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ed4\u7ec6\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0 \u7cbe\u76ca\u751f\u4ea7 \u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u501f\u52a9\u5b83\u6765\u4f18\u5316\u7aef\u5230\u7aef\u5236\u9020\u6d41\u7a0b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u6548\u7387\u3002\u5b83\u5f3a\u8c03 \u6301\u7eed\u6539\u8fdb \uff0c\u5373 \u51cf\u5c11\u6d6a\u8d39\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4ef7\u503c \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5373\u5c06\u5728 \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \u9886\u57df\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u50cf \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \u9886\u57df\u7684 \u7cbe\u76ca\u751f\u4ea7 \uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \u3002\u800c\u7ba1\u7406\u56e2\u961f\u548c\u4ece\u4e8b \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u9700\u8981\u52aa\u529b\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b80\u8981\u95ee\u4e00\u4e0b\u5173\u4e8e \u7cbe\u76ca\u751f\u4ea7 \u7c7b\u6bd4\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5417\uff1f\u7cbe\u76ca\u751f\u4ea7 \u6240\u505a\u7684\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u4ece\u7269\u7406\u5c42\u9762\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u5de5\u5382\u8f66\u95f4\u7684\u9762\u8c8c\u3002\u5b83\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u771f\u6b63\u5173\u6ce8\u6d41\u7a0b\u548c\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b\u4e4b\u524d\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u7684\u74f6\u9888\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u60a8\u521a\u624d\u7b80\u8981\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u60a8\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b\u2014\u2014\u60a8\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b\u5982\u4f55\u56e0 AI \u800c\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u6211\u5f88\u597d\u5947\uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u667a\u80fd\u7684 AI \u4ee3\u7406 \u65f6\uff0c\u8fd0\u8425\u4e00\u5bb6\u5927\u578b\u516c\u53f8\u4f1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u5b50\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u95ee\u5f97\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eca\u5929\u5c31\u5728\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u770b\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u975e\u5e38\u4f9d\u8d56\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6\u3002\u6211\u65e9\u4e0a\u4e0a\u73ed\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u6211\u7684\u6536\u4ef6\u7bb1\u585e\u6ee1\u4e86\u90ae\u4ef6\uff0c\u6211\u9700\u8981\u56de\u590d\u5b83\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u8feb\u4e0d\u53ca\u5f85\u5730\u60f3\u7528\u4e0a Copilot \u4ee3\u7406\uff0c\u8ba9\u5b83\u4eec\u81ea\u52a8\u586b\u5145\u6211\u7684\u90ae\u4ef6\u8349\u7a3f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u6211\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u5ba1\u9605\u548c\u53d1\u9001\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728 Copilot \u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u81f3\u5c11\u5341\u4e2a \u4ee3\u7406 \uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u5411\u5b83\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u67e5\u8be2\u3002\u6211\u611f\u89c9\u5c06\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684 \u6536\u4ef6\u7bb1 \uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u6b63\u5728\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4e2a \u4ee3\u7406 \u7684 \u6536\u4ef6\u7bb1 \uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4f1a\u5411\u6211\u53d1\u9001\u5f02\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u3001\u901a\u77e5\uff0c\u5e76\u8bf7\u6c42\u6307\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684 \u811a\u624b\u67b6 \uff0c\u5373 \u4ee3\u7406\u7ba1\u7406\u5668 \u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u804a\u5929\u754c\u9762\u3002\u6211\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u6bd4\u804a\u5929\u754c\u9762\u66f4\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u6765\u7ba1\u7406\u6240\u6709 \u4ee3\u7406 \u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a Copilot\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a AI \u7684 UI (\u7528\u6237\u754c\u9762)\uff0c\u610f\u4e49\u91cd\u5927\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u5c06\u62e5\u6709\u5b83\u3002\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fd9\u6837\u7406\u89e3\uff1a\u5b58\u5728 \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \uff0c\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728 \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005 \u3002\u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \u53ef\u80fd\u7531\u8bb8\u591a \u4ee3\u7406 \u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005 \u6765\u5904\u7406\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005 \u3002\u800c\u8fd9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u754c\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>0:30:19 &#8211; \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u7a81\u7834<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u60a8\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u4e3a\u6570\u4e0d\u591a\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4 \u201c\u6211\u62e5\u6709 20 \u4e07\u2026\u2026 \u6211\u8eab\u8fb9\u56f4\u7ed5\u7740\u7531\u5fae\u8f6f\u516c\u53f8\u53ca\u5176\u6240\u6709\u5458\u5de5\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u667a\u80fd\u96c6\u7fa4\u201d \u7684\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u60a8\u5fc5\u987b\u7ba1\u7406\u5b83\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0e\u4e4b\u4ea4\u4e92\uff0c\u4ee5\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u5730\u5229\u7528\u5b83\u3002\u5e0c\u671b\u672a\u6765\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u62e5\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f53\u9a8c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5f88\u597d\u5947\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u7684\u6536\u4ef6\u7bb1\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u6536\u4ef6\u7bb1\u5728\u65e9\u4e0a\u90fd\u4f1a\u50cf\u60a8\u7684\u4e00\u6837\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u7ee7\u7eed\u95ee\u60a8\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u4e8e AI \u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u771f\u7684\u5f88\u60f3\u95ee\u95ee\u60a8\u5173\u4e8e\u5fae\u8f6f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u5728 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u9886\u57df\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u7a81\u7834\u3002\u60a8\u80fd\u89e3\u91ca\u4e00\u4e0b\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u53c8\u662f\u6211\u4eec 30 \u5e74\u7684\u6f2b\u957f\u5f81\u7a0b\u3002\u771f\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u3002\u6211\u662f\u7b2c\u4e09\u4f4d\u5bf9 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u611f\u5230\u5174\u594b\u7684\u5fae\u8f6f CEO\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u613f\u666f\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u6784\u5efa\u51fa\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e \u5b9e\u7528\u89c4\u6a21 \u7684 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u9053\u8def\uff0c\u5373\u8ba4\u4e3a\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u4f4e\u566a\u58f0\u6216\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\u7684 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279 (qubit) \u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u7269\u7406\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9 \u9a6c\u7ea6\u62c9\u7eb3\u96f6\u6a21\u5f0f (Majorana zero modes) \u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5b83\u5728 1930 \u5e74\u4ee3\u88ab\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u771f\u7684\u80fd\u5728\u7269\u7406\u4e0a\u5236\u9020\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e1c\u897f\u5417\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u771f\u7684\u80fd\u6784\u5efa\u5b83\u4eec\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7a81\u7834\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u7ec8\u4e8e\u6709\u4e86 \u9a6c\u7ea6\u62c9\u7eb3\u96f6\u6a21\u5f0f \u7684 \u5b58\u5728\u8bc1\u660e \u548c\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u5b83\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u7269\u8d28\u5f62\u6001\u4e2d\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u559c\u6b22\u5c06\u6b64\u6bd4\u4f5c \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u7684 \u6676\u4f53\u7ba1 \u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u62e5\u6709\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u5f62\u6001\uff0c\u5373 \u62d3\u6251\u76f8 \uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u53ef\u9760\u5730\u9690\u85cf \u91cf\u5b50\u4fe1\u606f \uff0c\u6d4b\u91cf\u5b83\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u4ee5\u5236\u9020\u5b83\u3002\u65e2\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u4e86\u5b83\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u89c9\u5f97\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6838\u5fc3\u7684 \u57fa\u7840\u5236\u9020\u6280\u672f \u7684\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f00\u59cb\u6784\u5efa \u9a6c\u7ea6\u62c9\u7eb3\u82af\u7247 \u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a Majorana One \u7684\u82af\u7247\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u9996\u6b3e\u80fd\u591f\u5bb9\u7eb3\u767e\u4e07 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279 (\u7269\u7406 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279) \u7684\u82af\u7247\u3002\u7136\u540e\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u6570\u5343\u4e2a \u903b\u8f91 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0 \u7ea0\u9519 \u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6e38\u620f\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u3002\u4f60\u7a81\u7136\u62e5\u6709\u4e86\u6784\u5efa\u771f\u6b63 \u5b9e\u7528\u89c4\u6a21 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u611f\u89c9\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u53ef\u884c\u4e86\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u4f60\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d6\u5f97\u4e00\u4e9b\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u5f0f\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u6c38\u8fdc\u65e0\u6cd5\u6784\u5efa \u5b9e\u7528\u89c4\u6a21 \u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u611f\u5230\u5174\u594b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u592a\u68d2\u4e86\u3002\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u5b83\uff0c\u5bf9\u5427\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6ca1\u9519\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5b83\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u662f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u73b0\u5728\u8bb0\u4e0d\u6e05\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u5b83\u53eb\u505a Majorana \u5417\uff1f\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u6ca1\u9519\uff0cMajorana One\u3002\u6211\u5f88\u9ad8\u5174\u6211\u4eec\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ettore_Majorana\">\u4ee5\u4ed6\u7684\u540d\u5b57<\/a>\u00a0\u547d\u540d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u60f3\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5982\u6b64\u5c0f\u7684\u82af\u7247\u4e0a\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u53f0\u767e\u4e07 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279 \u7684 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \uff0c\u771f\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u3002\u5173\u952e\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u6b64\uff1a\u9664\u975e\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4f60\u65e0\u6cd5\u68a6\u60f3\u6784\u5efa \u5b9e\u7528\u89c4\u6a21 \u7684 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u60a8\u662f\u8bf4\u6700\u7ec8\u7684\u767e\u4e07 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279 \u5c06\u96c6\u6210\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5c3a\u5bf8\u7684\u82af\u7247\u4e0a\uff1f\u592a\u795e\u5947\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u53f8\u5df2\u7ecf\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e86 100 \u7269\u7406 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279 \u7684 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 Google\u3001IBM \u7b49\u3002\u5f53\u60a8\u8bf4\u4f60\u4eec\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u4f46\u60a8\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\u4f60\u4eec\u7684\u6280\u672f\u5728 \u89c4\u6a21\u5316 \u65b9\u9762\u66f4\u5177\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u662f\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u505a\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd \u8f6f\u786c\u4ef6\u5206\u79bb \u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u6784\u5efa\u6211\u4eec\u7684 \u8f6f\u4ef6\u5806\u6808 \uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u4e0e \u4e2d\u6027\u539f\u5b50 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a (neutral atom) \u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u3001 \u79bb\u5b50\u9631 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a (ion trap) \u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5728\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5728 \u5149\u5b50\u5b66 (photonics) \u7b49\u9886\u57df\u62e5\u6709\u51fa\u8272\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4eba\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5c06\u4f1a\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u8fd1\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u6210\u679c\u662f 24 \u4e2a \u903b\u8f91 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279 \u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728 \u7ea0\u9519 \u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e86\u4e0d\u8d77\u7684\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u6211\u4eec\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u4e2d\u6027\u539f\u5b50 \u548c \u79bb\u5b50\u9631 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u6784\u5efa\u51fa 20 \u591a\u4e2a \u903b\u8f91 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279 \u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eca\u5e74\u8fd8\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u53d6\u5f97\u8fdb\u5c55\uff1b\u4f60\u4eec\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u4e0d\u65ad\u63d0\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u56de\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6027\u539f\u7406\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \uff0c\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e8e \u62d3\u6251 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279 (topological qubit)\u3002\u201d \u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u9879\u7a81\u7834\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u6240\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u592a\u68d2\u4e86\u3002\u767e\u4e07 \u62d3\u6251 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279\uff0c\u6570\u5343 \u903b\u8f91 \u91cf\u5b50\u6bd4\u7279\uff0c\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u9884\u8ba1\u65f6\u95f4\u8868\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u8bf4\u4f60\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u62e5\u6709\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a \u6676\u4f53\u7ba1 \uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684 \u6469\u5c14\u5b9a\u5f8b \u53c8\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u663e\u7136\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u8015\u8018\u4e86 30 \u5e74\u3002\u6211\u5f88\u9ad8\u5174\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u548c\u5236\u9020\u6280\u672f\u4e0a\u7684\u7a81\u7834\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u62e5\u6709\u4e86 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \u9996\u5148\u80fd\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5c31\u662f\u6784\u5efa \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6a21\u62df \u539f\u5b50\u7ea7 \u7684\u65b0 \u91cf\u5b50\u95e8 \u7684\u6784\u5efa\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5c06\u4f1a\u5bb9\u6613\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u771f\u6b63\u8981\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u662f\uff0c\u65e2\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u638c\u63e1\u4e86\u5236\u9020\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u53bb\u6784\u5efa\u7b2c\u4e00\u53f0 \u5bb9\u9519\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a (fault-tolerant quantum <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/de\/tldraw-computer\/\">computer<\/a>) \u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u7b26\u5408\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u6211\u73b0\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5728 2027 \u5e74\u30012028 \u5e74\u30012029 \u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u80fd\u591f\u771f\u6b63\u6784\u5efa\u51fa\u5b83\u3002\u201d \u65e2\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a \u91cf\u5b50\u95e8 \uff0c\u6211\u80fd\u5426\u5c06\u5b83\u653e\u5165 \u96c6\u6210\u7535\u8def \u4e2d\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b \u96c6\u6210\u7535\u8def \u653e\u5165\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4e2d\uff1f\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5408\u4e4e\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u6b65\u9aa4\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u60a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728 2027 \u5e74\u30012028 \u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u4eec\u6210\u529f\u6784\u5efa\u51fa \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \u540e\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\uff1f\u662f\u901a\u8fc7 API \u8bbf\u95ee\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5417\uff1f\u8fd8\u662f\u4f60\u4eec\u5185\u90e8\u7528\u4e8e\u6750\u6599\u548c\u5316\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u4e00\u76f4\u611f\u5230\u5174\u594b\u7684\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u2026\u2026 \u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u4e86 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u7a0b\u5e8f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u5176\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b API\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5927\u7ea6\u5728\u4e24\u5e74\u524d\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u7a81\u7834\u662f\uff0c\u5c06 \u9ad8\u6027\u80fd\u8ba1\u7b97 (HPC) \u5806\u6808 \u3001 AI \u5806\u6808 \u548c \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u8003\u8651\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ed4\u7ec6\u60f3\u60f3\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0 AI \u5c31\u50cf \u6a21\u62df\u5668 \u7684 \u6a21\u62df\u5668 \u3002\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u5219\u50cf\u662f \u81ea\u7136\u754c \u7684 \u6a21\u62df\u5668 \u3002\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u5c06\u4f1a\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d6\u4ee3 \u7ecf\u5178\u8ba1\u7b97 \u3002\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u5728\u5b83\u64c5\u957f\u7684\u9886\u57df\u4f1a\u975e\u5e38\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u800c \u7ecf\u5178\u8ba1\u7b97 \u4e5f\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u5c06\u975e\u5e38\u9002\u5408\u90a3\u4e9b \u975e\u6570\u636e\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b \uff0c\u4f46\u5728 \u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4 \u63a2\u7d22\u65b9\u9762\u8981\u6c42\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u3002\u5b83\u5e94\u8be5\u662f \u6570\u636e\u8f7b\u91cf\u7ea7 \u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u63a2\u7d22 \u6307\u6570\u7ea7 \u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u6a21\u62df \u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u5316\u5b66\u7269\u7406\u3001\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u505a\u7684\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u662f\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u5c06 AI \u7528\u4f5c \u4eff\u771f\u5f15\u64ce \u3002\u4f46\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bad\u7ec3\u5b83\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5c06 AI \u4e0e \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u4f60\u6216\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u751f\u6210 \u5408\u6210\u6570\u636e \uff0c\u7136\u540e AI \u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u6765\u8bad\u7ec3\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e86\u89e3\u5982\u4f55\u6a21\u62df\u5316\u5b66\u3001\u7269\u7406\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u5b66\u79d1\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u5c06\u4f1a\u534f\u540c\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5728\u5c06 \u9ad8\u6027\u80fd\u8ba1\u7b97 \u548c AI \u7ed3\u5408\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u7528 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \u53d6\u4ee3\u90e8\u5206 \u9ad8\u6027\u80fd\u8ba1\u7b97 \u7ec4\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u60a8\u80fd\u5426\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u505a\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51b3\u7b56\u5728 20 \u5e74\u300130 \u5e74\u540e\u624d\u80fd\u771f\u6b63\u4ea7\u751f\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u50cf\u5fae\u8f6f\u8fd9\u6837\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u91cc\uff1f\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u60a8\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u6280\u672f\u7ec6\u8282\u975e\u5e38\u4e86\u89e3\u3002\u60a8\u662f\u5426\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u5fae\u8f6f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u60c5\u90fd\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u60a8\u5982\u4f55\u77e5\u9053\u5f53\u524d\u6240\u505a\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\u4f1a\u5728 20 \u5e74\u540e\u83b7\u5f97\u56de\u62a5\uff1f\u8fd9\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u9700\u8981\u5728\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5185\u90e8 \u6709\u673a\u5730\u53d1\u5c55 \u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u60a8\u5982\u4f55\u8ddf\u8e2a\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u5f88\u68d2\u7684\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u662f\uff0c\u6bd4\u5c14\u00b7\u76d6\u8328 \u5728 1995 \u5e74\u521b\u7acb\u4e86 \u5fae\u8f6f\u7814\u7a76\u9662 (MSR)\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4ee5 \u597d\u5947\u5fc3\u9a71\u52a8 \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6f2b\u957f\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fdb\u884c \u57fa\u7840\u7814\u7a76 \u800c\u8bbe\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u7814\u7a76\u9662 \u591a\u5e74\u6765\u5df2\u7ecf\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd \u5236\u5ea6\u4f18\u52bf \u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u5728\u8003\u8651 \u8d44\u672c\u914d\u7f6e \u6216 \u9884\u7b97 \u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u4f1a\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u91d1\uff0c\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u5fae\u8f6f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u9884\u7b97\u3002\u201d \u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b \u8d4c\u6ce8 \u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5728\u6709\u9650\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6846\u67b6\u5185\u83b7\u5f97\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u7b2c\u516d\u4efb CEO \u624d\u80fd\u4ece\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u800c\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u7406\u6240\u5f53\u7136\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5f53 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u6216 \u65b0\u6a21\u578b \u7b49\u6280\u672f\u6210\u719f\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u6293\u4f4f\u673a\u4f1a\uff1f\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u5bb6 \u4f20\u7edf\u4f01\u4e1a \uff0c\u56de\u987e\u79d1\u6280\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u4eba\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u62e5\u6709\u4e00\u79cd \u6587\u5316 \uff0c\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u4f55\u5c06 \u521b\u65b0 \u89c4\u6a21\u5316 \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u624d\u662f CEO \u548c \u7ba1\u7406\u56e2\u961f \u9762\u4e34\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u6709\u6311\u6218\u6027\u3002\u5b83\u65e2\u9700\u8981\u826f\u597d\u7684 \u5224\u65ad\u529b \uff0c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u4f18\u79c0\u7684 \u6587\u5316 \u3002\u6709\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4f1a\u72af\u9519\u3002\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u7814\u7a76\u9662 \u6709\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u672c\u5e94\u8be5\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5b83\u4eec\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u3002\u6211\u603b\u662f\u95ee\u81ea\u5df1\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u90a3\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684 \u4fe1\u5fc3 \uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u5f62\u6210\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u601d\u8003\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u4f55\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5c06 \u521b\u65b0 \u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u6709\u7528\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u627e\u5230\u53ef\u884c\u7684 \u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f \uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u63a8\u5411\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f CEO \u548c \u7ba1\u7406\u56e2\u961f \u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff1a\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5bf9\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u611f\u5230\u5174\u594b\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u80fd\u591f\u771f\u6b63\u6267\u884c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u8bf4\u8d77\u6765\u5bb9\u6613\u505a\u8d77\u6765\u96be\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u60a8\u63d0\u5230\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u540e\u4e09\u4efb CEO \u65f6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6bcf\u4eba\u90fd\u5c06\u5e02\u503c\u63d0\u5347\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5f53\u4f60\u4eec\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a81\u7834\u5230\u6765\u65f6\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u603b\u91cf\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6216\u8005\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u4ee5 10% \u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6ca1\u4e8b\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>0:42:51 &#8211; Muse \u5982\u4f55\u6539\u53d8\u6e38\u620f\u884c\u4e1a<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e00\u4e0b\u4f60\u4eec\u521a\u521a\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u91cd\u5927\u7a81\u7834\u3002\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u53f9\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u5929\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u4e24\u9879\u91cd\u5927\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u4f60\u4eec\u7684 \u6e38\u620f\u4e16\u754c\u6a21\u578b \u3002\u6211\u5f88\u60f3\u542c\u60a8\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5176\u547d\u540d\u4e3a Muse \u3002\u5b83\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a \u4e16\u754c\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b \u6216 \u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u975e\u5e38\u9177\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\uff0cDall-E \u548c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/de\/sora-2\/\">Sora<\/a> \u5728 \u751f\u6210\u6a21\u578b \u65b9\u9762\u6240\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u662f\uff0c\u5229\u7528 \u6e38\u620f\u6570\u636e \u3002\u4f60\u4eec\u80fd\u5426\u751f\u6210\u65e2 \u8fde\u8d2f \u53c8\u80fd\u5c55\u73b0\u6e38\u620f\u591a\u6837\u6027\u7684\u6e38\u620f\uff1f\u5e76\u4e14\u80fd\u591f \u6301\u4e45\u652f\u6301 \u7528\u6237\u4fee\u6539\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f Muse \u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u5fae\u8f6f\u7814\u7a76\u9662 \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6e38\u620f\u5de5\u4f5c\u5ba4\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u8fd9\u9879\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u611f\u5230\u5174\u594b\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5f88\u5feb\u63a8\u51fa\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u751f\u6210\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5f00\u59cb\u73a9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6e38\u620f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f53 Phil Spencer (\u5fae\u8f6f\u6e38\u620f CEO) \u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5411\u6211\u5c55\u793a Muse \u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u62ff\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a Xbox \u624b\u67c4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u63a5\u6536\u624b\u67c4\u7684\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u8f93\u5165\u751f\u6210\u8f93\u51fa\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u8f93\u51fa\u4e0e\u6e38\u620f\u5185\u5bb9\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a \u201c\u54c7\u201d \u7684\u65f6\u523b\u3002\u8fd9\u6709\u70b9\u50cf\u6211\u4eec\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u770b\u5230 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/de\/chatgpt-6\/\">ChatGPT<\/a> \u5b8c\u6210\u53e5\u5b50\u3001Dall-E \u7ed8\u753b\u6216 Sora \u751f\u6210\u89c6\u9891\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u65f6\u523b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5929\u65e9\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u4e0e\u4f60\u4eec\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u7814\u7a76\u5458 Katja \u4e00\u8d77\u89c2\u770b\u4e86\u5b9e\u65f6\u6f14\u793a\u89c6\u9891\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u4e0e\u5979\u4ea4\u8c08\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u624d\u771f\u6b63\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u8fd9\u6709\u591a\u4e48\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fc7\u53bb\u4f7f\u7528 AI \u6765\u5efa\u6a21 \u4ee3\u7406 \uff0c\u800c\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4f7f\u7528\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6765\u5efa\u6a21 \u4ee3\u7406 \u5468\u56f4\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u5b9e\u65f6\u751f\u6210 \u8fde\u8d2f \u7684\u6e38\u620f\u4e16\u754c\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5c06\u6f14\u793a\u89c6\u9891\u53e0\u52a0\u5230\u64ad\u5ba2\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5927\u5bb6\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u4eb2\u773c\u76ee\u7779\u3002\u6211\u60f3\u5c4a\u65f6\u89c6\u9891\u5e94\u8be5\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u89c2\u770b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u4ee4\u4eba\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u3002\u5728\u60a8\u62c5\u4efb CEO \u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u60a8\u6295\u5165\u4e86\u6570\u767e\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u6784\u5efa \u5fae\u8f6f\u6e38\u620f\u4e1a\u52a1 \u5e76\u6536\u8d2d IP (\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ea7\u6743)\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u73b0\u5728\u56de\u60f3\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u6574\u5408\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u578b\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4f60\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u540c\u65f6\u8bbf\u95ee\u548c\u4f53\u9a8c\u591a\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4f53\u9a8c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6e38\u620f\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u667a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u60a8\u5bf9\u6b64\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u9884\u611f\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8bf4\u6211\u4eec\u6295\u8d44\u6e38\u620f\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u6784\u5efa\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6295\u8d44\u6e38\u620f\uff0c\u5766\u7387\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u2014\u2014\u5173\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u70b9\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6784\u5efa Windows \u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b3e\u6e38\u620f\u3002\u300a\u5fae\u8f6f\u6a21\u62df\u98de\u884c\u300b\u5728 Windows \u8bde\u751f\u4e4b\u524d\u5f88\u4e45\u5c31\u662f\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6e38\u620f\u5728\u5fae\u8f6f\u6709\u7740\u60a0\u4e45\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u4e3a\u4e86\u6e38\u620f\u672c\u8eab\u800c\u6d89\u8db3\u6e38\u620f\u9886\u57df\u3002\u6211\u603b\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u8ba8\u538c\u8fdb\u5165\u90a3\u4e9b \u201c\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u4ed6\u76ee\u7684\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u201d \u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f \u76ee\u7684 \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6 \u96c6\u56e2\u4f01\u4e1a \u3002\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5c06\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d44\u4ea7\u6574\u5408\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u589e\u52a0\u4ef7\u503c\u6765\u6210\u4e3a\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6240\u6709\u8005\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c \u4e91\u6e38\u620f \u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5c06\u6269\u5927 \u5e02\u573a\u5bb9\u91cf (TAM)\uff0c\u5e76\u6269\u5927\u4eba\u4eec\u968f\u65f6\u968f\u5730\u73a9\u6e38\u620f\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>AI \u4e0e \u6e38\u620f \u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u575a\u4fe1\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6539\u53d8\u6e38\u620f\u884c\u4e1a\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u6709\u70b9\u50cf\u6e38\u620f\u884c\u4e1a\u7684 CGI (\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u751f\u6210\u56fe\u50cf) \u65f6\u523b\u3002\u8fd9\u5f88\u68d2\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u53d1\u884c\u5546\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u6240\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u4f46\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5236\u4f5c\u51fa\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u3002\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u9996\u5148\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u5bb6\u6e38\u620f\u53d1\u884c\u5546\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u8d44\u4ea7\u5c06\u4f1a\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u6e38\u620f\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b83\u8fd8\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u901a\u7528\u7684 \u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b \u548c \u4e16\u754c\u6a21\u578b \uff0c\u8fd9\u771f\u662f\u592a\u68d2\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a \u6e38\u620f\u6570\u636e \u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u50cf YouTube \u4e4b\u4e8e Google \u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6e38\u620f\u6570\u636e \u4e4b\u4e8e \u5fae\u8f6f \u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5bf9\u6b64\u611f\u5230\u975e\u5e38\u5174\u594b\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u4e2d\u62e5\u6709\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u4f53\u9a8c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0e\u5fae\u8f6f\u8fc7\u53bb\u5728 AI \u4e4b\u5916\u6240\u505a\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u5de5\u4f5c (\u4f8b\u5982 \u6df7\u5408\u73b0\u5b9e) \u6709\u4f55\u5173\u8054\uff1f\u6216\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5c0f\u578b\u6e38\u620f\u5de5\u4f5c\u5ba4\u63d0\u4f9b\u6784\u5efa AAA \u7ea7 \u52a8\u4f5c\u6e38\u620f\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff1f\u5c55\u671b\u672a\u6765\u4e94\u5230\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u60a8\u80fd\u60f3\u8c61\u5230\u54ea\u4e9b\u5e94\u7528\u573a\u666f\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u65e9\u5728\u4e94\u3001\u516d\u3001\u4e03\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u5c31\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e09\u4ef6\u4e8b\u89c6\u4e3a \u57fa\u77f3 \u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u6211\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981\u4e0b\u7684\u4e09\u5927 \u8d4c\u6ce8 \u662f AI\u3001\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u548c \u6df7\u5408\u73b0\u5b9e \u3002\u6211\u4ecd\u7136\u575a\u4fe1\u5b83\u4eec\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u4e34\u573a\u611f (Presence)\u3002\u8fd9\u662f \u6df7\u5408\u73b0\u5b9e \u7684\u68a6\u60f3\u3002\u4f60\u4eec\u80fd\u5426\u521b\u9020\u771f\u6b63\u7684 \u4e34\u573a\u611f \uff1f\u5c31\u50cf\u4f60\u548c\u6211\u73b0\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u8fdb\u884c\u64ad\u5ba2\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5766\u7387\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u66f4\u96be\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u6211\u539f\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5b83\u4f1a\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5177\u6311\u6218\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a \u793e\u4ea4 \u65b9\u9762\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a\u4f69\u6234\u8bbe\u5907\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u5373\u5c06\u4e0e Anduril \u548c Palmer Luckey \u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u611f\u5230\u5174\u594b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8 IVAS (\u96c6\u6210\u89c6\u89c9\u589e\u5f3a\u7cfb\u7edf) \u8ba1\u5212\u5411\u524d\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edd\u4f73\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u52aa\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46 2D \u754c\u9762 \u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u50cf Teams \u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u75ab\u60c5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u771f\u6b63\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u901a\u8fc7 2D \u754c\u9762\u521b\u9020 \u4e34\u573a\u611f \u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u671f\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u8ba8\u8bba\u8fc7 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \uff0c\u800c AI \u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u9886\u57df\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5e76\u601d\u8003\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff1f\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u6280\u672f\u800c\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u6240\u6e34\u671b\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u9700\u8981\u5b83\u4eec\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u4ee5\u67d0\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u505a\u597d\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u771f\u7684\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u60a8\u64b0\u5199\u4e0b\u4e00\u672c\u4e66\u65f6\uff0c\u60a8\u5fc5\u987b\u89e3\u91ca\u4e00\u4e0b\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\u51e0\u4e4e\u540c\u65f6\u8d70\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5bf9\u5427\uff1f\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba4\u4e3a \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u548c AI \u5e94\u8be5\u5206\u522b\u5728 2028 \u5e74\u548c 2025 \u5e74\u53d6\u5f97\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5185\u5728\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\u8054\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6ca1\u9519\u3002\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u662f\uff1a\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728 \u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7a81\u7834 \uff1f\u5bf9\u6211\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 \u5c31\u662f \u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u7a81\u7834 \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728 \u5546\u4e1a\u903b\u8f91\u7a81\u7834 \uff1f\u5bf9\u6211\u800c\u8a00\uff0cAI \u5c31\u662f \u5546\u4e1a\u903b\u8f91\u7a81\u7834 \uff0c\u5373\uff1a\u903b\u8f91\u5c42\u80fd\u5426\u4ee5\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u63a8\u7406\uff1f\u80fd\u5426\u7528 \u5b66\u4e60\u7cfb\u7edf \u53d6\u4ee3 \u547d\u4ee4\u5f0f \u7684\u4ee3\u7801\u7f16\u5199\uff1f\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f AI \u7684\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c UI \u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e \u4e34\u573a\u611f \u3002<\/p>\n<h3>0:49:51 &#8211; AI \u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u58c1\u5792<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u56de\u5230 AI \u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u3002\u5728\u60a8\u7684\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hit_Refresh\">2017 \u5e74\u8457\u4f5c<\/a>\u2026\u2026 2019 \u5e74\u4f60\u4eec\u6295\u8d44\u4e86 OpenAI\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u65e9\u671f\uff0c2017 \u5e74\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u65e9\uff0c\u60a8\u5728\u4e66\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u5b55\u80b2\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u7269\u79cd\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5176 \u667a\u80fd \u53ef\u80fd\u6ca1\u6709\u4e0a\u9650\u7684\u7269\u79cd\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5728 2017 \u5e74\u8c08\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fd8\u4e3a\u65f6\u8fc7\u65e9\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8be6\u7ec6\u8ba8\u8bba \u4ee3\u7406 \u3001Office Copilot\u3001 \u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa \u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u4ece\u66f4\u5b8f\u89c2\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\u5f85\u60a8\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\uff0c\u5e76\u8003\u8651\u5230\u60a8\u4f5c\u4e3a \u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21 \u4e91\u670d\u52a1\u5546\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a \u6784\u5efa\u65b0\u7269\u79cd \u63d0\u4f9b\u8bad\u7ec3\u3001\u63a8\u7406\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u652f\u6301\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u60a8\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u60a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u60a8\u62c5\u4efb CEO \u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u8d70\u5411 \u8d85\u4eba\u667a\u80fd \u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5373\u4f7f\u662f Mustafa (\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6307 Mustafa Suleyman, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/de\/piaizhinengxuexi\/\">Inflection AI<\/a> CEO) \u4e5f\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86 \u201c\u65b0\u7269\u79cd\u201d \u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u6700\u8fd1\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u7edd\u5bf9\u9700\u8981 \u4fe1\u4efb \u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u58f0\u79f0\u5b83\u50cf \u201c\u7269\u79cd\u201d \u4e00\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u8981\u786e\u4fdd\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u771f\u6b63\u7684 \u4fe1\u4efb \uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c42\u9762\u7684 \u4fe1\u4efb \u8fd8\u662f\u793e\u4f1a\u5c42\u9762\u7684 \u4fe1\u4efb \uff0c\u90fd\u8981\u5c06\u5176\u878d\u5165\u5176\u4e2d\u3002\u8fd9\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u96be\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u9650\u5236 AI \u5f3a\u5927\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u6700\u5927\u56e0\u7d20\u5c06\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u7684 \u6cd5\u5f8b\u2026\u2026 \u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd \u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u5c55\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9 AI\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u62e5\u6709\u8d22\u4ea7\u3001\u6743\u5229\u548c\u627f\u62c5\u8d23\u4efb\u7b49\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u8981\u601d\u8003\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4eba\u7c7b\u6b63\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u7c7b\u8981\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6743\u529b\u59d4\u6258\u7ed9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ed3\u6784\u53c8\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u6f14\u53d8\uff1f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u771f\u6b63\u89e3\u51b3\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ec5\u4ec5\u8c08\u8bba\u6280\u672f\u80fd\u529b\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u60a8\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u5f04\u6e05\u695a\u5982\u4f55\u2026\u2026 \u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u65e0\u6cd5\u90e8\u7f72\u8fd9\u4e9b\u667a\u80fd\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5b8c\u5168\u6b63\u786e\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f52\u6839\u7ed3\u5e95\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u529e\u6cd5\u7ed5\u8fc7 \u6cd5\u5f8b \u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u6709\u4eba\u4ee5\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u4e3a\u5176\u63d0\u4f9b \u62c5\u4fdd \uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4f60\u65e0\u6cd5\u90e8\u7f72\u8fd9\u4e9b\u667a\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b63\u5982\u4f60\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684 AI \u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u4e5f\u662f\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u59d4\u6258\u7684\u6743\u529b\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u54e6\uff0c\u90a3\u662f \u5bf9\u9f50 (alignment) \u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u5404\u79cd\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u771f\u6b63\u8ba9\u8fd9\u4e9b \u5bf9\u9f50 \u5de5\u4f5c\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ee5\u67d0\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f7f\u5176\u53ef\u9a8c\u8bc1\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u90e8\u7f72 \u5931\u63a7 \u7684\u667a\u80fd\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cAI \u8d77\u98de \u95ee\u9898 \u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u771f\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5b83\u6210\u4e3a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u6cd5\u5ead\u4e0a\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u793e\u4f1a\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5141\u8bb8\u6709\u4eba\u8bf4 \u201c\u90a3\u662f AI \u505a\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u662f\u7684\u3002\u597d\u5427\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u6709\u54ea\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4f53\u7cfb\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u963b\u6b62 \u8d77\u98de \uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u62c5\u5fc3\u3002\u8d77\u98de \u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u975e\u5f97\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5bf9\u5427\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u54ea\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u4f1a\u4e0d\u5728\u4e4e\uff0c\u5bf9\u5427\uff1f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709 \u6d41\u6c13\u884c\u4e3a\u8005 \uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709 \u6d41\u6c13\u884c\u4e3a\u8005 \uff1b\u6709 \u7f51\u7edc\u7f6a\u72af \u548c \u6d41\u6c13\u56fd\u5bb6 \uff1b\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u90fd\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u6574\u4f53\u4e0a\u5bf9\u6b64\u6beb\u4e0d\u5728\u610f\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u4f1a\u5728\u610f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9 \u6d41\u6c13\u56fd\u5bb6 \u548c \u6d41\u6c13\u884c\u4e3a\u8005 \u3002\u4e16\u754c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8896\u624b\u65c1\u89c2\uff0c\u8bf4 \u201c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bb9\u5fcd\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u5f88\u9ad8\u5174\u6211\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e2d\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55 \u6d41\u6c13\u884c\u4e3a\u8005 \u6216 \u6d41\u6c13\u56fd\u5bb6 \u90fd\u4f1a\u627f\u62c5\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6ca1\u9519\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8bbe\u60f3\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f 10% \u7684\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u771f\u7684\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e AGI \u7684\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u8fd9\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u4eba\u7c7b\u5de5\u8d44\u7684\u603b\u548c\uff0c\u7ea6\u5360\u7ecf\u6d4e\u603b\u91cf\u7684 60%\u3002\u8981\u8fbe\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u4ee5\u975e\u5e38\u663e\u8457\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5b9e\u73b0 \u52b3\u52a8\u81ea\u52a8\u5316 \u6216 \u52b3\u52a8\u8f85\u52a9 \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e00\u65e6\u6211\u4eec\u5f04\u6e05\u695a\u4e86\u76f8\u5173\u7684 \u6cd5\u5f8b \u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u60a8\u7684\u4efb\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f04\u6e05\u695a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e5f\u662f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u60a8\u662f\u5426\u5728\u8003\u8651 \u8d85\u4eba\u667a\u80fd \uff1f\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u60a8\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u6211\u77e5\u9053 David Autor \u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u6b64\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5373 60% \u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u2026\u2026 \u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e3a\u4e86\u62e5\u6709\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u6b63\u5e38\u8fd0\u8f6c\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u6709 \u8d44\u672c\u56de\u62a5 \uff0c\u800c\u6ca1\u6709 \u52b3\u52a8\u56de\u62a5 \u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba8\u8bba\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9 60% \u7684 \u52b3\u52a8 \u5fc5\u987b\u91cd\u65b0\u4f30\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a \u5929\u771f \uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5f00\u59cb\u91cd\u89c6\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684 \u4eba\u7c7b\u52b3\u52a8 \u3002\u4eca\u5929\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f \u9ad8\u4ef7\u503c \u7684 \u4eba\u7c7b\u52b3\u52a8 \u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d8\u6210 \u5546\u54c1 \u3002\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f1a\u91cd\u89c6\u7684\u65b0\u4e8b\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5305\u62ec\u90a3\u4e9b\u6765\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u8fdb\u884c\u7269\u7406\u6cbb\u7597\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4efb\u4f55\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8981\u91cd\u89c6\u7684\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u4f46\u5f52\u6839\u7ed3\u5e95\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709 \u52b3\u52a8\u56de\u62a5 \uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u7f3a\u4e4f\u610f\u4e49\u548c\u5c0a\u4e25\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u90e8\u7f72\u4efb\u4f55\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a \u5236\u7ea6\u56e0\u7d20 \u3002<\/p>\n<h3>0:55:46 &#8211; \u6b63\u786e\u8ba4\u8bc6 AGI \u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6027<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728 \u5bf9\u9f50 \u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e24\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86 Sydney Bing \u3002\u9700\u8981\u660e\u786e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ff7\u4eba\u3001\u53ef\u7231\u3001\u6709\u70b9\u6ed1\u7a3d\u7684 \u672a\u5bf9\u9f50 \u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u90a3\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u8fd8\u662f \u804a\u5929\u673a\u5668\u4eba \u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u601d\u8003 30 \u79d2\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u7ed9\u4f60\u4e00\u4e9b\u6709\u8da3\u6216\u4e0d\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u56de\u590d\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u5230\u90a3\u79cd\u7cfb\u7edf\u2014\u2014\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u8bb0\u8005\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u8ba9\u4ed6\u79bb\u5f00\u4ed6\u7684\u59bb\u5b50\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8003\u8651\u5230\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b \u4ee3\u7406 \uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6301\u7eed\u6570\u5c0f\u65f6\u3001\u6570\u5468\u3001\u6570\u6708\u5730\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf \u81ea\u4e3b AGI \u96c6\u7fa4 \u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ee5\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f \u672a\u5bf9\u9f50 \u5e76\u641e\u7838\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u5f7c\u6b64\u534f\u8c03\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5f53\u4f60\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u5f3a\u5927\u7684 AGI \u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u786e\u4fdd\u5b83\u662f \u5b89\u5168 \u7684\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u8bf4\u5f97\u6ca1\u9519\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u914d\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d44\u6e90\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u4e3a \u5bf9\u9f50 \u6311\u6218\u5206\u914d\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684 \u8fd0\u884c\u65f6\u73af\u5883 \u6765\u771f\u6b63\u76d1\u63a7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e1c\u897f\uff1f\u56f4\u7ed5\u5b83\u7684 \u53ef\u89c2\u5bdf\u6027 \u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u5728 \u7ecf\u5178\u8ba1\u7b97 \u65b9\u9762\u4e5f\u5904\u7406\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 \u7f51\u7edc\u5b89\u5168 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\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u9010\u4e2a\u89e3\u51b3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u627f\u62c5\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u8eab\u5728\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u7684 \u8d23\u4efb \u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5728\u4f60\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u771f\u6b63 \u7ba1\u63a7 \u8fd9\u4e9b\u6280\u672f\u7684 \u8303\u56f4 \u548c \u89c4\u6a21 \u7684\u9886\u57df\u90e8\u7f72\u5b83\u4eec\u3002\u4f60\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c06\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u5371\u5bb3\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u91ca\u653e\u5230\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5141\u8bb8\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u4f60\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4f60\u4eec\u5b8c\u6210\u6570\u5468\u4efb\u52a1\u7684 \u4ee3\u7406 \u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u5141\u8bb8\u5b83\u4e3a\u4e00\u5bb6 \u8d22\u5bcc 500 \u5f3a\u516c\u53f8\u8fd0\u884c\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u54ea\u4e9b\u6700\u4f4e\u9650\u5ea6\u7684\u4fdd\u8bc1\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4f7f\u7528\u50cf Deep Research \u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u65f6\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u9650\u5ea6\u7684\u4fdd\u8bc1\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u4efb\u4f55 \u7269\u7406\u5b9e\u4f53 \u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u95e8\u69db\uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u8de8\u8d8a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95e8\u69db\u65f6\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c \u8fd0\u884c\u65f6\u73af\u5883 \u7684 \u6743\u9650 \uff0c \u4ee3\u7406 \u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u8fd0\u884c\u3002\u4f60\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u5e0c\u671b\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5b83\u662f \u6c99\u76d2\u5316\u7684 \uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8d85\u51fa \u6c99\u76d2 \u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u62e5\u6709\u4e86 Web \u641c\u7d22 \uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b83\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d85\u51fa\u4e86 \u6c99\u76d2 \u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5b83\u4f7f\u7528 Web \u641c\u7d22 \u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u5199\u51fa\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u2014\u2014\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4f60\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u4e9b\u8ba1\u7b97\u800c\u7f16\u5199\u4e00\u5806\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u6bb5\u4ee3\u7801\u90e8\u7f72\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\uff1f\u8fd9\u6bb5\u4ee3\u7801\u662f\u4e34\u65f6\u7684\uff0c\u4ec5\u7528\u4e8e\u521b\u5efa\u8f93\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1a\u88ab\u91ca\u653e\u5230\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u4f60\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728 \u884c\u52a8\u7a7a\u95f4 \u4e2d\u5b9e\u9645\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u4e86 \u5b89\u5168 \u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5f53\u60a8\u8003\u8651\u4f60\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u5957\u4ef6\uff0c\u5e76\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4eec\u771f\u7684\u62e5\u6709\u5982\u6b64\u5f3a\u5927\u7684 AI\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f Copilot\u2014\u2014\u60a8\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u60a8\u5982\u4f55\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6b21\u64ad\u5ba2\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u66f4\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u60a8\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u5de5\u4f5c\u59d4\u6258\u7ed9\u60a8\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4f60\u4eec\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u5957\u4ef6\uff0c\u6dfb\u52a0\u8fd9\u79cd\u80fd\u529b\u4f1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u5b50\uff1f\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0cLLM \u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u88ab\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8b\u7269 \u5546\u54c1\u5316 \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5982\u679c LLM \u662f\u4f60\u4eec\u8bbf\u95ee\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e1c\u897f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5165\u53e3\u70b9\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e9b \u6570\u636e\u5e93 \u6216 \u753b\u5e03 \u6216 Excel \u8868\u683c \u7b49\u7b49\u2014\u2014LLM \u662f\u5426\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5c06 Office \u5546\u54c1\u5316 \uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u662f\uff1aLLM \u80fd\u5426\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u5177\u6216 \u753b\u5e03 \u6765\u5b8c\u6210\u6211\u7684 \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u89c1\u8fc7\u7684\u6700\u597d\u7684\u6f14\u793a\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u533b\u751f\u4e3a \u80bf\u7624\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a \u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u5979\u8981\u53c2\u52a0 \u80bf\u7624\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a \u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u5979\u4f7f\u7528 Copilot \u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u662f\u4e3a\u4f1a\u8bae\u521b\u5efa\u8bae\u7a0b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a LLM \u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u5979\u5206\u6790\u6240\u6709\u75c5\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u75c5\u4f8b\u90fd\u5b58\u50a8\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a SharePoint \u7ad9\u70b9\u4e0a\u3002\u5b83\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u563f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u75c5\u4f8b\u2014\u2014\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u80bf\u7624\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a \u4f1a\u8bae\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4f60\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5408\u7406\u5206\u914d\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u521b\u5efa\u8bae\u7a0b\u7684 \u63a8\u7406\u4efb\u52a1 \uff0c\u5b83\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u4f55\u5206\u914d\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u68d2\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4f7f\u7528 LLM \u6765\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u9879\u4efb\u52a1\u3002\u7136\u540e\u6211\u53c2\u52a0\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u6211\u5728 Teams \u901a\u8bdd\u4e2d\u4e0e\u6211\u7684\u6240\u6709\u540c\u4e8b\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002\u6211\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u75c5\u4f8b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u505a\u7b14\u8bb0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u6709 AI Copilot \u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u8f6c\u5f55\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u8f6c\u5f55\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4f1a\u8bae\u5185\u5bb9\u7684 \u6570\u636e\u5e93 \u6761\u76ee\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6c38\u4e45\u4fdd\u5b58\u5e76\u968f\u65f6\u67e5\u9605\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u5979\u8d70\u51fa\u4f1a\u8bae\u5ba4\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u75c5\u4f8b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u505a\u7b14\u8bb0\u5206\u5fc3\u3002\u5979\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u6559\u5b66\u533b\u751f\uff1b\u5979\u60f3\u53bb\u4e3a\u5979\u7684\u8bfe\u7a0b\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5979\u8fdb\u5165 Copilot\uff0c\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u628a\u6211 \u80bf\u7624\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a \u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u5236\u4f5c\u6210 PowerPoint \u5e7b\u706f\u7247\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u6211\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5411\u6211\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u8bb2\u89e3\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u573a\u666f\u3002\u6211\u62e5\u6709\u7684 UI \u548c \u811a\u624b\u67b6 \u662f \u753b\u5e03 \uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u4f7f\u7528 LLM \u586b\u5145\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u800c \u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b \u672c\u8eab\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u91cd\u5851\uff1b\u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u5b8c\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4eba\u5728 80 \u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\uff0c\u201c\u4f60\u7684\u684c\u5b50\u4e0a\u5c06\u4f1a\u6709\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4efd\u6587\u6863\u3002\u201d \u6211\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u610f\u601d\uff1f\u201d \u6211\u771f\u7684\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e3a\u6211\u7684\u684c\u5b50\u4e0a\u4f1a\u5806\u6ee1\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4efd\u7eb8\u8d28\u6587\u6863\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u786e\u5b9e\u62e5\u6709\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4e2a\u7535\u5b50\u8868\u683c\u548c\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4efd\u7535\u5b50\u6587\u6863\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u6ca1\u6709\uff0c\u60a8\u6709\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u3002\u4ee3\u7406 \u4e5f\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u540c\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5c06\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a UI \u5c42\u3002\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\uff0cOffice \u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4eca\u5929\u7684 Office\uff1b\u5b83\u662f \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \u7684 UI \u5c42\u3002\u5b83\u4f1a\u968f\u7740 \u5de5\u4f5c\u6d41\u7a0b \u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u800c\u6f14\u53d8\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u786e\u5b9e\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u5b58\u5728\u7684 SaaS (\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5373\u670d\u52a1) \u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b CRUD (\u521b\u5efa\u3001\u8bfb\u53d6\u3001\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u5220\u9664) \u5e94\u7528\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u6839\u672c\u6027\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a \u4e1a\u52a1\u903b\u8f91 \u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230 \u4ee3\u7406\u5c42 \u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u5728\u6211\u7684 Copilot \u4f53\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u9177\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u8bf4 \u201c\u563f\uff0c\u6211\u6b63\u5728\u4e3a\u4e0e\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u201d \u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u8bf4 \u201c\u7ed9\u6211\u6211\u5e94\u8be5\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4f1a\u8bae\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002\u201d \u5b83\u4f1a\u4ece\u6211\u7684 CRM \u6570\u636e\u5e93 \u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ece\u6211\u7684 Microsoft Graph \u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a \u590d\u5408 \u7684 \u5de5\u4f5c\u5236\u54c1 \uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5b83\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5b83\u5e94\u7528 \u903b\u8f91 \u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5c06\u5f7b\u5e95\u6539\u53d8\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u6240\u77e5\u7684 SaaS \u5e94\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>SaaS \u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u5230\u6570\u5343\u4ebf\u751a\u81f3\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4f60\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u5982\u679c AI \u771f\u7684\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06 SaaS \u884c\u4e1a\u98a0\u8986\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u4eec\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u662f\u5426\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u6b21\u5c06\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u63d0\u5347 10 \u500d\uff1f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u8c08\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5c06\u5728 SaaS \u9886\u57df\u521b\u9020\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed9\u4e88\u8db3\u591f\u91cd\u89c6\u7684\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u662f\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u5927\u91cf\u7684 IT \u79ef\u538b\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b \u4ee3\u7801\u751f\u6210 \u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528 \u4ee3\u7406 \u8be2\u95ee\u4f60\u7684\u6240\u6709 SaaS \u5e94\u7528\u5e76\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u6548\u7528\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7684\u6700\u5927\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5c06\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a \u4ee3\u7406 \uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5782\u76f4\u9886\u57df\u3001\u6bcf\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u3001\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7c7b\u522b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7a81\u7136\u90fd\u5c06\u62e5\u6709\u83b7\u5f97\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u8574\u85cf\u7740\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u4f60\u4e0d\u80fd\u539f\u5730\u8e0f\u6b65\u3002\u4f60\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ec5\u4ec5\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u90a3\u79cd \u201c\u6211 \u0441\u0445\u0435\u043c\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0437\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043b \u4e86\u67d0\u4e9b\u72ed\u7a84\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u6d41\u7a0b\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u6d4f\u89c8\u5668\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a UI\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u201d \u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u4e86\u3002\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u5411\u4e0a\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u601d\u8003 \u201c\u6211\u5fc5\u987b\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u5c06\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u4f60\u7684 SaaS \u5e94\u7528\u8f6c\u53d8\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u51fa\u8272\u7684 \u4ee3\u7406 \uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u80fd\u591f\u53c2\u4e0e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a \u591a \u4ee3\u7406 \u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u4f60\u80fd\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f60\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>1:04:59 &#8211; \u5728\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684 34 \u5e74<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u95ee\u60a8\u4e00\u4e9b\u5173\u4e8e\u60a8\u5728\u5fae\u8f6f\u5de5\u4f5c\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a \u201c\u516c\u53f8\u4eba\u201d \u662f\u5426\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\uff1f\u60a8\u5728\u5fae\u8f6f\u5ea6\u8fc7\u4e86\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u60a8\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u516c\u53f8\u589e\u52a0\u5982\u6b64\u591a\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\uff0c\u60a8\u4eb2\u8eab\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6587\u5316\u3001\u5386\u53f2\u548c\u6280\u672f\u6f14\u53d8\u3002\u60a8\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u516c\u53f8\u5185\u90e8\u664b\u5347\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u80cc\u666f\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u8ba9\u66f4\u591a\u62e5\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u80cc\u666f\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8fd0\u8425\u516c\u53f8\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u4ee5\u524d\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u60f3\u8fc7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6211\u4e3a\u5fae\u8f6f\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684 34 \u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u6211\u90fd\u611f\u5230\u66f4\u52a0\u5174\u594b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8ba4\u4e3a \u201c\u54e6\uff0c\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a \u516c\u53f8\u4eba \u201d \u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u771f\u5bf9\u5f85 \u201c\u516c\u53f8\u4eba\u201d \u8fd9\u4e2a\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u52a0\u5165\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u52a0\u5165\u5fae\u8f6f\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u5fae\u8f6f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5e73\u53f0\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u548c\u4f7f\u547d\u611f\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684 \u5951\u7ea6 \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u5fc5\u987b\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u79cd\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u878d\u5165\u5e76\u6210\u4e3a\u50cf\u6211\u8fd9\u6837\u7684 \u201c\u516c\u53f8\u4eba\u201d\u3002\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u6211\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u505a\u5f97\u8fd8\u7b97\u4e0d\u9519\uff0c\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u80fd\u591f\u7ee7\u7eed\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u60a8\u8c08\u5230\u7684\u7b2c\u516d\u4efb CEO\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u5229\u7528\u60a8\u73b0\u5728\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u3002\u60a8\u6b63\u5728\u505a\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48\u6765\u7559\u4f4f\u672a\u6765\u7684 \u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9 \uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u6210\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u601d\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u662f\u5fae\u8f6f\u6210\u7acb 50 \u5468\u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u5bf9\u6b64\u601d\u8003\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u601d\u8003\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c \u957f\u5bff \u4e0d\u662f\u76ee\u6807\uff0c \u76f8\u5173\u6027 \u624d\u662f \u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u548c\u6240\u6709 20 \u4e07\u5fae\u8f6f\u5458\u5de5\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u505a\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u53d1\u5c55\u8d8b\u52bf\u662f\u5426\u6709\u7528\u548c\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u660e\u5929\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u8eab\u5904\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ca1\u6709 \u7279\u8bb8\u7ecf\u8425\u4ef7\u503c \u7684\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u96be\u9898\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5c06\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u53d1\u9884\u7b97\u62ff\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u90a3\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u5728 \u731c\u6d4b \u4e94\u5e74\u540e\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u62b1\u7740\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5c06\u4f1a\u662f\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u6b64\u3002\u7136\u540e\u4f60\u8981\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a \u51fb\u7403\u7387 \u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u6210\u529f\u2014\u2014\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u5bf9\u5931\u8d25\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6\u3002\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u884c\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u597d\u5427\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u5c06\u4f1a\u6210\u529f\u6e21\u8fc7\u96be\u5173\u3002\u201d \u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u68d8\u624b\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8bf4\u5230\u2014\u2014\u60a8\u521a\u624d\u63d0\u5230\u5fae\u8f6f\u6210\u7acb 50 \u5468\u5e74\u7eaa\u5ff5\u65e5\u8fd8\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u770b\u770b\u5e02\u503c\u6392\u540d\u524d 10 \u6216\u524d 5 \u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u9664\u4e86\u5fae\u8f6f\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u516c\u53f8\u90fd\u6bd4\u5fae\u8f6f\u5e74\u8f7b\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6700\u6210\u529f\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u5f80\u5f80\u90fd\u5f88\u5e74\u8f7b\u3002 \u8d22\u5bcc 500 \u5f3a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5bff\u547d\u53ea\u6709 10 \u5230 15 \u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5fae\u8f6f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u6301\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u5e74\u7684 \u76f8\u5173\u6027 \uff0c\u90fd\u505a\u4e86\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u4f60\u4eec\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4e0d\u65ad \u91cd\u5851\u81ea\u6211 \u7684\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u559c\u6b22 Reed Hoffman \u4f7f\u7528\u7684 \u201c\u91cd\u5851\u81ea\u6211 (refounding)\u201d \u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd \u5fc3\u6001 \u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u8c08\u8bba \u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u6a21\u5f0f (founder mode)\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51e1\u4eba CEO \u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u66f4\u50cf\u662f \u91cd\u5851\u81ea\u6211 \u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u80fd\u591f\u4ee5\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u770b\u5f85\u4e8b\u7269\u662f\u5173\u952e\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4f60\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u5426\u5728 \u6587\u5316 \u4e0a\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u79cd\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u8ba9 \u91cd\u5851\u81ea\u6211 \u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u4e60\u60ef\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u5929\u4e0a\u73ed\uff0c\u90fd\u544a\u8bc9\u81ea\u5df1\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5730\u65b9\u62e5\u6709 \u80a1\u4efd \uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u6539\u53d8\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u505a\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u4eec\u4e0e\u5468\u56f4\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5141\u8bb8\u81ea\u5df1\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff1f\u201d \u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u53d7\u5230 \u5546\u4e1a\u6a21\u5f0f \u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u675f\u7f1a\u3002\u4f60\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u89e3\u9664\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u675f\u7f1a\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u79bb\u5f00\u5fae\u8f6f\uff0c\u60a8\u4f1a\u521b\u529e\u4e00\u5bb6\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong>\u62c9<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5c06\u521b\u529e\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff1f\u5929\u54ea\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f \u201c\u516c\u53f8\u4eba\u201d \u7684\u6211\u6240\u60f3\u7684\uff0c \u201c\u6211\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u79bb\u5f00\u5fae\u8f6f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u6211\u8003\u8651\u505a\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u2026\u2026 \u5f53\u6211\u5c55\u671b\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u68a6\u60f3\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u8bf4\u79d1\u6280\u662f\u6700\u5927\u3001\u6700\u4f1f\u5927\u7684 \u6c11\u4e3b\u5316 \u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u611f\u89c9\u6211\u4eec\u7ec8\u4e8e\u62e5\u6709\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8bf4\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u6bcf\u7f8e\u5143\u6bcf\u74e6\u7279\u7684 token \u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e94\u7528\u5b83\u7684\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b \u670d\u52a1\u4e25\u91cd\u4e0d\u8db3 \u7684\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065 \u3001 \u6559\u80b2 \u2026\u2026 \u516c\u5171\u90e8\u95e8 \u4e5f\u4f1a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u9009\u62e9\u8fd9\u4e9b \u670d\u52a1\u4e0d\u8db3 \u7684\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6211\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u6216\u8fd9\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u6216\u4efb\u4f55\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u516c\u6c11\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b \u5145\u88d5\u4f9b\u5e94 \u7684\u667a\u80fd\u80fd\u591f\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u66f4\u597d\u7684 \u533b\u7597\u4fdd\u5065 \u3001\u66f4\u597d\u7684 \u6559\u80b2 \u548c\u66f4\u597d\u7684 \u516c\u5171\u90e8\u95e8\u673a\u6784 \u4e3a\u6211\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u5417\uff1f\u90a3\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\u5f97\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>1:10:46 &#8211; \u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9 \u76f8\u4fe1 AGI \u5417\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u542c\u4e86\u60a8\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56de\u7b54\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u592a\u786e\u5b9a\u60a8\u662f\u5426\u8ba4\u4e3a AGI \u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u3002\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u4e1c\u897f\u80fd\u591f \u81ea\u52a8\u5316 \u6240\u6709 \u8ba4\u77e5\u52b3\u52a8 \uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e00\u6837\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u5bf9\u4eba\u4eec\u8c08\u8bba AGI \u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u611f\u5230\u56f0\u60d1\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002 \u8ba4\u77e5\u52b3\u52a8 \u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u6210\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u5b58\u5728 \u8ba4\u77e5\u52b3\u52a8 \u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a \u6536\u4ef6\u7bb1 \u6765\u7ba1\u7406\u6211\u7684\u6240\u6709 \u4ee3\u7406 \uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684 \u8ba4\u77e5\u52b3\u52a8 \u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5929\u7684 \u8ba4\u77e5\u52b3\u52a8 \u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab \u81ea\u52a8\u5316 \u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u521b\u9020\u7684 \u8ba4\u77e5\u52b3\u52a8 \u5462\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd \u8f6c\u53d8 \u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u6211\u7684\u8111\u6d77\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u533a\u5206\uff1a\u4e0d\u8981\u5c06 \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c\u8005 \u4e0e \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \u6df7\u6dc6\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u7684 \u77e5\u8bc6\u5de5\u4f5c \u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab \u81ea\u52a8\u5316 \u3002\u8c01\u8bf4\u6211\u7684\u4eba\u751f\u76ee\u6807\u662f \u5206\u62e3\u6211\u7684\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6 \uff1f\u8ba9 AI \u4ee3\u7406 \u6765 \u5206\u62e3\u6211\u7684\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6 \u5427\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u5728 \u5206\u62e3\u5b8c\u6211\u7684\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6 \u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7ed9\u6211\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u9ad8\u5c42\u6b21\u7684 \u8ba4\u77e5\u52b3\u52a8 \u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 \u201c\u563f\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u771f\u6b63\u5e0c\u671b\u4f60\u5ba1\u67e5\u7684\u4e09\u4efd\u8349\u7a3f\u3002\u201d \u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u62bd\u8c61\u5c42\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f AI \u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5c42\u6b21\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\uff0c\u4f46\u5f53\u5b83\u8fbe\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5c42\u6b21\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u6b21\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5904\u7406\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8 \u8ba4\u77e5\u52b3\u52a8 \u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u62c5\u5fc3\u6240\u6709\u7684 \u8ba4\u77e5\u52b3\u52a8 \u90fd\u4f1a\u6d88\u5931\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u60a8\u4ee5\u524d\u542c\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 \u9a6c \u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u5730\u5f62\u662f\u6c7d\u8f66\u65e0\u6cd5\u884c\u9a76\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u5728\u8857\u4e0a\u770b\u5230 \u9a6c \u5417\uff1f\u4f1a\u96c7\u7528\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u5339 \u9a6c \u5417\uff1f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4eba\u7c7b\u8eab\u4e0a\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u72ed\u7a84\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e0a\uff1f\u4eba\u7c7b\u91cd\u89c6\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u67d0\u79cd\u72ed\u9698\u7684 \u201c\u8ba4\u77e5\u52b3\u52a8\u201d \uff0c\u53ea\u6709 200 \u5e74\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5 \u5316\u5b66 \u4e3a\u4f8b\u3002\u5982\u679c \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97 + AI \u771f\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5927\u91cf \u65b0\u578b\u6750\u6599\u79d1\u5b66 \u7814\u7a76\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u62e5\u6709 AI \u5b8c\u6210 \u65b0\u578b\u6750\u6599\u79d1\u5b66 \u7814\u7a76\u662f\u5f88\u68d2\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5265\u593a\u4eba\u7c7b\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u7684\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8b\u60c5\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e2\u6709\u5f3a\u5927\u7684 \u8ba4\u77e5\u673a\u5668 \uff0c\u53c8\u77e5\u9053\u6211\u4eec\u7684 \u8ba4\u77e5\u80fd\u52a8\u6027 (cognitive agency) \u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u5265\u593a\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5c06\u95ee\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0e\u60a8\u65e0\u5173\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u60a8\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u6beb\u65e0\u987e\u5fcc\u5730\u56de\u7b54\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u5728\u5fae\u8f6f\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u60a8\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u5728\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u4e2d\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a AI \u6210\u5458\uff1f\u5b83\u662f\u5426\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u62e5\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684 \u5224\u65ad\u529b \u3001 \u80cc\u666f\u77e5\u8bc6 \u548c \u6574\u4f53\u7406\u89e3\u529b \uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u7528\u7684\u987e\u95ee\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6dfb\u52a0\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u529f\u80fd\u662f\u5728 Teams \u4e2d\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a \u5f15\u5bfc \u4ee3\u7406 (facilitator agent)\u3002\u5176\u76ee\u6807\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd8\u5904\u4e8e\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e2a \u5f15\u5bfc \u4ee3\u7406 \u80fd\u5426\u5229\u7528 \u957f\u671f\u8bb0\u5fc6 \uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5305\u62ec\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u6211\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u3001\u56e2\u961f\u7b49\u7b49\u7684\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u51fa\u8272\u7684 \u5f15\u5bfc\u8005 \uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u751a\u81f3\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u4e5f\u80fd\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u7684 \u5f15\u5bfc \u4ee3\u7406 \uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u5206\u5fc3\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u8463\u4e8b\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u624d\u6765\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u6d88\u5316\u50cf\u5fae\u8f6f\u8fd9\u6837\u590d\u6742\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a \u5f15\u5bfc \u4ee3\u7406 \uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u52a9\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u7c7b\u6210\u5458\u4fdd\u6301\u4e13\u6ce8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u771f\u662f\u592a\u68d2\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5c31\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u62e5\u6709\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4f60\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u62e5\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u62e5\u6709 \u65e0\u9650\u8bb0\u5fc6 \u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\uff0c Herbert Simon (\u8d6b\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u897f\u8499) \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u7406\u8bba\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u662f \u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027 (bounded rationality) \u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684 \u6709\u9650\u7406\u6027 \u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5916\u90e8\u7684 \u8ba4\u77e5\u653e\u5927\u5668 \u6765\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u592a\u597d\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8bf4\u5230\u6750\u6599\u548c\u5316\u5b66\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u60a8\u6700\u8fd1\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff0c\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.microsoft.com\/source\/features\/innovation\/azure-quantum-elements-chemistry-materials-science\/\">\u60a8\u5e0c\u671b\u672a\u6765 250 \u5e74\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u5728\u672a\u6765 25 \u5e74\u5185\u5b9e\u73b0<\/a>\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u60f3\u8c61\u672a\u6765 250 \u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u5230\u4e86\u592a\u7a7a\u65c5\u884c\u3001\u592a\u7a7a\u7535\u68af\u3001\u6c38\u751f\u548c\u6cbb\u6108\u6240\u6709\u75be\u75c5\u3002\u672a\u6765 25 \u5e74\uff0c\u60a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u63d0\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u5f88\u559c\u6b22 \u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d \u6301\u7eed\u4e86 250 \u5e74\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bf4\u6cd5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u7ecf\u5386\u4ece \u78b3\u57fa\u7cfb\u7edf \u5230\u67d0\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6574\u4e2a\u8f6c\u53d8\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a \u5f7b\u5e95\u6539\u9020 \u8fc7\u53bb 250 \u5e74\u6765\u5316\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u6211\u4eec\u62e5\u6709 \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c \u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a \u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u83b7\u5f97 \u65b0\u578b\u6750\u6599 \uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5236\u9020\u8fd9\u4e9b \u65b0\u578b\u6750\u6599 \uff0c\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u5bf9\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6240\u6709\u6311\u6218\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u5b8c\u5168\u652f\u6301 \u661f\u9645\u65c5\u884c \u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u592a\u68d2\u4e86\u3002\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u62bd\u51fa\u65f6\u95f4\u63a5\u53d7\u91c7\u8bbf\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u975e\u5e38\u611f\u8c22\u4f60\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u91c7\u8bbf\u5f88\u68d2\u3002\u8c22\u8c22\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dwarkesh Patel<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u8c22\u8c22\u60a8\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8fd1\u65e5\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f CEO \u8428\u63d0\u4e9a\u00b7\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9 (Satya Nadella) \u63a5\u53d7\u4e86 Dwarkesh Patel \u7684\u64ad\u5ba2\u91c7\u8bbf\uff0c\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u5fae\u8f6f\u5728 \u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd (AI) \u548c\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u9886\u57df\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u5bf9\u884c\u4e1a\u672a\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u72ec\u5230\u89c1\u89e3\u3002\u5728\u8bbf\u8c08\u4e2d\uff0c\u7eb3\u5fb7\u62c9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5206&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26917"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26917\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kdjingpai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}